国际经济与贸易学院知识库

随着中国加入WTO，外贸总额实现了连续多年的大幅增长，这使中国成为了世界范围内的制造大国。然而，尽管经过二十余年的迅速发展，中国贸易规模已经荣登世界第一，但由于目前加工贸易占比超过30%，贸易规模与国际贸易收益之间存在着巨大差异，中国仍未能在全球价值链上占据有利位置。因此探索影响全球价值链地位的因素，分析其影响路径，为我国在提升国际分工中的获利能力和推动制造业价值链地位向中上游迈进提供理论支撑，是我国当前国际贸易研究的重要方向。中间品贸易作为货物贸易的大头，其占进口货物贸易的比重超过60%，且该比重呈逐年上升趋势，而中间品贸易对制造业具有重大影响。基于以上背景，本文就进口中间品质量影响中国制造行业全球价值链地位的结果以及更深层次上的影响机制等问题进行分析研究。

本文首先分别总结分析了中国进口中间品质量与制造行业全球价值链的发展情况，同时利用CEPII-BACI数据和WIOD数据对进口中间品质量和制造业全球价值链地位指数进行测度。随后，在此基础上进一步研究进口中间品质量可能带来的影响效应，并分析其影响制造业全球价值链地位的路径。最后通过构建理论框架，进行实证分析，证明其作用到国内制造行业全球价值链地位之上的效果。

论文研究结果表明：一、进口中间品质量对中国制造业全球价值链地位存在正向促进作用。具体影响路径为进口中间品质量带来技术溢出效应，企业吸收技术后实现创新能力提升，进而促进制造业价值链地位攀升。二、进口中间品质量对中国制造业全球价值链地位存在逆向抑制作用。具体影响路径为进口中间品质量会增加企业对中间产品的使用，不利于企业自主研发，从而导致进口依赖，进而抑制中国制造业价值链向中上游迈进。三、综合来看，进口中间品质量对中国制造业全球价值链地位总体呈现正向促进作用。不同技术水平行业和2008年金融危机前后的情况存在异质性，高技术行业进口中间品质量促进制造业价值链地位升级；金融危机以后进口中间品质量促进制造业价值链地位的提升。由此看来，我国当前实施的进口贸易政策是合理的，但应注重企业进口高质量中间品方面的引导，重视引进吸收基础上的再创新，强化对企业创新能力的支撑。

With its accession to the WTO, it has brought about a substantial increase in the total amount of foreign trade for many years, which makes China become a largest manufacturing country in the world. However, despite more than 20 years of rapid development, China's trade scale has ranked first in the world, but China still fails to occupy a favorable position in the global value chain due to the processing trade accounting for more than 30% and the huge difference between the trade scale and international trade income. Therefore, it is an important direction for China's current international trade research to explore the factors affecting the global value chain, analyze its influence path, and provide theoretical support for China to improve the profitability in the international division of labor and promote the position of manufacturing value chain to the upper reaches. As the main part of the goods trade, the intermediate goods trade accounts for more than 60% of the imported goods trade, and the proportion is increasing year by year. And the intermediate goods trade has a significant impact on the manufacturing industry. Based on the above background, this paper studies the results of the quality of imported intermediates affecting the global value chain status of China's manufacturing industry and the deeper influence mechanism.

At first, this paper summarizes and analyzes the development of China's manufacturing global value chain and quality of intermediate products imported from China, and measures imported intermediate quality and manufacturing GVC status index by using CEPII-BACI data and WIOD data. Subsequently, on this basis, the possible effect of the quality of imported intermediate products is further studied, and the path of affecting the position of the manufacturing global value chain is analyzed and the theoretical framework is constructed. Later, the effect on the position of the global value chain of the domestic manufacturing industry is proved through empirical analysis.

The research results of the paper show that: First, the quality of imported intermediate products has a positive effect in promoting the global value chain status of China's manufacturing industry. The specific influence path is that technology spillover effect bringing by the quality of imported intermediate products absorbed by the enterprises，improving its innovation ability, thus promoting the climbing status of the manufacturing value chain. Second, the quality of imported intermediate products has a reverse inhibitory effect on the position of China's manufacturing industry in the global value chain. The specific impact path is that the quality of imported intermediate products will increase the use of intermediate products by enterprises, which is not conducive to the independent research and development of enterprises, thus leading to import dependence, and thus inhibiting China's manufacturing value chain to the upstream. Third, in general, the quality of imported intermediate products plays a positive role in promoting the status of China's manufacturing industry in the global value chain. There is heterogeneity between industries with different technical levels and around the 2008 financial crisis. The quality of imported intermediates in high-tech industries promotes the upgrading of manufacturing value chain, and the promotion of manufacturing value chain after the financial crisis. From this point of view, China's current import trade policy is reasonable, but we should pay attention to the guidance of enterprises to import high-quality intermediate products, pay attention to the re-innovation based on the introduction and absorption, and strengthen the support of the innovation ability of enterprises.