Temperature trend analysis and extreme high temperature prediction based on weighted Markov Model in Lanzhou

doi:10.1007/s11069-021-04711-y

	Temperature trend analysis and extreme high temperature prediction based on weighted Markov Model in Lanzhou
	Pang, Zhiqiang1 ; Wang, Zhaoxu 2
	2021-08
发表期刊	NATURAL HAZARDS
卷号	108 期号:1 页码:891-906
摘要	In this study, temporal trend analysis was conducted on the annual and quarterly meteorological variables of Lanzhou from 1951 to 2016, and a weighted Markov model for extremely high temperature prediction was constructed. Several non-parametric methods were used to analyse the trend of meteorological variables. Considering that sequence autocorrelation may affect the accuracy of the trend test, we performed an autocorrelation test and carried out trend analysis for sequences with autocorrelation after removing correlation. The results show that the maximum temperature, minimum temperature and average temperature in Lanzhou all have a significant upward trend and show different performances in each season. In detail, the trend of maximum temperature in the summer is not significant, while the upward trend of minimum temperature in the winter is the most significant, which leads to more and more warm winter phenomenon. Finally, we construct a weighted Markov prediction model for extremely high temperature and obtain the conclusion that the prediction results by the model are consistent with the actual situation.
关键词	Meteorological variables Trend analysis Mann– Kendall test Weighted Markov model
DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04711-y
收录类别	SCOPUS ; SCIE
ISSN	0921-030X
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:000637693600002
出版者	SPRINGER
原始文献类型	Article
EISSN	1573-0840
引用统计	被引频次：6[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.lzufe.edu.cn/handle/39EH0E1M/30187
专题	统计与数据科学学院图书馆
作者单位	1.Lanzhou Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Stat, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China; 2.Qinghai Normal Univ, Sch Math & Stat, Xining, Qinghai, Peoples R China
第一作者单位	兰州财经大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pang, Zhiqiang,Wang, Zhaoxu. Temperature trend analysis and extreme high temperature prediction based on weighted Markov Model in Lanzhou[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS,2021,108(1):891-906.
APA	Pang, Zhiqiang,&Wang, Zhaoxu.(2021).Temperature trend analysis and extreme high temperature prediction based on weighted Markov Model in Lanzhou.NATURAL HAZARDS,108(1),891-906.
MLA	Pang, Zhiqiang,et al."Temperature trend analysis and extreme high temperature prediction based on weighted Markov Model in Lanzhou".NATURAL HAZARDS 108.1(2021):891-906.