The Analysis of Impact of Brexit on the Post-Brexit EU Using Intervented Multivariate Time Series

doi:10.1007/s10255-021-1022-z

	The Analysis of Impact of Brexit on the Post-Brexit EU Using Intervented Multivariate Time Series
	Tian, Yu 1; Ma, Shao-pei 2; Rui, Rong-xiang 2; Yu, Zhen 2; Tian, Mao-zai2,3,4,5
	2021-07
发表期刊	ACTA MATHEMATICAE APPLICATAE SINICA-ENGLISH SERIES
卷号	37 期号:3 页码:441-458
摘要	The UK is the most important partner of the EU in terms of economic and other fields due to the geographical proximity. It was one of the largest economies in the EU and its per capita income is higher than the EU average, so it is a net contributor to the EU. With UKs membership of the EU ended on 31 January 2019, there are concerns that the Brexit may have a significant impact on the EU, resulting in social, economic, political, and institutional changes, etc. in EU. While the impact of Brexit on the UK has always been the subject of considerable scholarly interest in recent years, there is relatively little literature on the impact of Brexit on the EU. This paper focuses on the evaluation of the impact of Brexit on the EU economy and other relevant aspects along three dimensions: GDP, PPP, Quarterly GDP growth. Employing powerful quantitative analysis technology that includes vector autoregression model, multivariate time series model with intervention variables, and autoregression integrated moving average, this paper obtains the important and novel evidence about the potential impact of Brexit on the EU economy, pointing out that Brexit is of far-reaching significance to the EU. This analysis uses several statistical models to screen out several key influencing factors, which can be used to predict the total GDP of EU in the next five years. The results show that EU economy will react negatively to no-deal Brexit, and its growth rate of economy will slow down significantly in next 5 years. Finally, we put forward relevant policy suggestions on how to deal with the negative impact of Brexit on EU.
关键词	intervention multivariate time series model Brexit economy gaping Brexit hole no-deal Brexit post-Brexit EU
DOI	10.1007/s10255-021-1022-z
收录类别	SCOPUS ; SCIE ; CSCD
ISSN	0168-9673
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Mathematics
WOS类目	Mathematics, Applied
WOS记录号	WOS:000681749800001
出版者	SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
原始文献类型	Article
EISSN	1618-3932
引用统计	被引频次：2[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.lzufe.edu.cn/handle/39EH0E1M/30183
专题	统计与数据科学学院
作者单位	1.Loughborough Univ, Inst Diplomacy & Int Governance, London E20 3BS, England; 2.Renmin Univ China, Sch Stat, Ctr Appl Stat, Beijing 100872, Peoples R China; 3.Xinjiang Med Univ, Coll Med Engn & Technol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China; 4.Xinjiang Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Stat & Data Sci, Urumqi 830012, Peoples R China; 5.Lanzhou Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Stat, Lanzhou 730101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tian, Yu,Ma, Shao-pei,Rui, Rong-xiang,et al. The Analysis of Impact of Brexit on the Post-Brexit EU Using Intervented Multivariate Time Series[J]. ACTA MATHEMATICAE APPLICATAE SINICA-ENGLISH SERIES,2021,37(3):441-458.
APA	Tian, Yu,Ma, Shao-pei,Rui, Rong-xiang,Yu, Zhen,&Tian, Mao-zai.(2021).The Analysis of Impact of Brexit on the Post-Brexit EU Using Intervented Multivariate Time Series.ACTA MATHEMATICAE APPLICATAE SINICA-ENGLISH SERIES,37(3),441-458.
MLA	Tian, Yu,et al."The Analysis of Impact of Brexit on the Post-Brexit EU Using Intervented Multivariate Time Series".ACTA MATHEMATICAE APPLICATAE SINICA-ENGLISH SERIES 37.3(2021):441-458.