金融学院知识库

  人民币国际化是指人民币能够跨越国界，在境外流通，成为国际上普遍认可的计价、结算及储备货币的过程。“一带一路”倡议是中国提出的区域发展战略，该倡议的实行为人民币国际化提供了更为宽广的平台，进一步拓宽了人民币国际化的空间范畴。然而，“一带一路”沿线国家众多，人口规模也较大，且各国之间存在巨大差异，因此，人民币国际化在“一带一路”沿线各国推进时，不可全面撒网，需采取不同的策略，循序渐进地推进。

  本研究从空间上，探讨人民币国际化是如何在“一带一路”沿线各国推进的。首先，本文依据相关学者学术成果，梳理了人民币国际化的相关文献。其次，本文阐述人民币国际化在“一带一路”沿线国家的现实进展、推进路径及面临的障碍，探究人民币国际化的空间延伸特点以及影响因素。再次，本文选择“一带一路”沿线64个国家作为实证对象，从中国与沿线各国的政治、经济金融、文化、地理和军事联系以及沿线国家经济金融发展水平等6个方面，选取14个量化指标，运用k-means聚类，分析了沿线国家在人民币国际化空间推进影响因素下的聚类特点，就人民币国际化的推进对“一带一路”沿线国家进行区域划分。最后，采用因子分析法，分析了“一带一路”沿线各国在人民币国际化空间布局影响因素上的差异性，探讨了人民币国际化在“一带一路”沿线各国的推进策略。研究结果表明：(1)依据中国与沿线各国在人民币国际化空间布局影响因素上的聚类特点，将其划分为人民币国际化在“一带一路”沿线的核心区、辐射区和扩展区。新加坡、俄罗斯和巴基斯坦等8个国家属于核心区；越南、柬埔寨、白俄罗斯和伊拉克等36个国家属于辐射区；匈牙利、土耳其和保加利亚等20个国家属于扩展区。(2)运用因子分析，结果表明“一带一路”沿线各国在人民币国际化布局因素上存在差异性。最后，针对各类联系上的差异性，本文从加强人民币国际化空间布局的顶层设计、加强人民币汇率形成制度改革、加强经济金融合作、稳慎推进资本金融账户开放、加强与沿线各国的政治互信和文化交流等方面提出了相关政策建议。

The internationalization of RMB refers to the process by which RMB can cross national borders, circulate outside the country and become a universally recognized currency for pricing, settlement and reserve in the world. The “Belt and Road” initiative is a regional development strategy proposed by China. The implementation of this initiative provides a broader platform for the internationalization of the RMB, thereby broadening the scope of the internationalization of the RMB. However, there are many countries along the “Belt and Road” with large populations, and there are huge differences between countries. Therefore, when the internationalization of the RMB is promoted in the countries along the “Belt and Road” , it is not possible to cast the net in an all-round way and different strategies must be adopted. Advance step by step.

This research explores how the internationalization of the RMB has been promoted in countries along the “Belt and Road” from a spatial perspective. First of all, this article sorts out the relevant literature on RMB internationalization based on the academic achievements of related scholars. Secondly, this article elaborates on the actual progress, advancing path and obstacles faced by RMB internationalization in countries along the “Belt and Road” and explores the spatial extension characteristics and influencing factors of RMB internationalization. Again, this article selects 64 countries along the “Belt and Road” as the empirical objects and selects 14 quantitative indicators from 6 aspects including the political, economic and financial, cultural, geographical and military ties between China and the countries along the route and the economic and financial development level of the countries along the route. Using k-means clustering to analyze the clustering characteristics of the countries along the route under the influence factors of the advancement of the RMB internationalization space, so as to classify the regions of RMB internationalization in the countries along the “Belt and Road” . Finally, the factor analysis method is used to analyze the differences in the factors influencing the spatial layout of RMB internationalization in the countries along the “Belt and Road” and to discuss the promotion strategy of RMB internationalization in the countries along the “Belt and Road” . The research results show that: (1) According to the clustering characteristics of the factors affecting the spatial layout of RMB internationalization between China and the countries along the route, it is divided into the core area, radiation area and expansion area of RMB internationalization along the “Belt and Road” . Eight countries including Singapore, Russia and Pakistan belong to the core zone;36 countries including Vietnam, Cambodia, Belarus and Iraq belong to the radiation zone; and 20 countries including Hungary, Turkey and Bulgaria belong to the expansion zone. (2) Using factor analysis, the results show that the countries along the “Belt and Road” have differences in the factors of RMB internationalization. Finally, in view of the differences in various connections, this article focuses on strengthening the top-level design of the RMB internationalization space layout, strengthening the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation system, strengthening economic and financial cooperation, steadily advancing the opening of capital and financial accounts and strengthening the political mutual trust and cultural exchanges with countries along the line and so on.