经济学院知识库

老龄化目前是全球人口结构变化的重要特征，它对世界各国和地区的社会经济发展产生深远影响。我国作为即将步入老龄社会的发展中国家，人口老龄化对经济高质量发展带来巨大挑战。在此背景下，基于2000-2018年省际面板数据，采用柯布—道格拉斯生产函数和索罗经济增长模型，研究老龄化对经济高质量发展的影响。结果表明：（1）总体而言，目前我国经济高质量发展水平普遍较低，2000-2018年经济高质量发展指数的均值为0.144，根据经济高质量发展水平的高低，将30个省市划分成明星型省市、中间型省市和落后型省市。其中明星型省市全部分布在东部地区，中部和西部地区省市均是中间型和落后型省市。（2）考虑人口迁移因素时，老龄化对经济高质量发展产生抑制作用，但抑制作用在减弱。其中，老龄化对经济高质量发展的负向影响程度由强到弱依次为：深度老龄化（人口净迁出）地区>深度老龄化（人口净迁入）地区≈浅度老龄化（人口净迁出）地区>浅度老龄化（人口净迁入）地区。（3）不考虑人口迁移因素时，在研究期内老龄化对我国经济高质量发展产生负向影响。其中，深度老龄化地区的负向影响是浅度老龄化地区的2倍。（4）分时期回归分析表明，在人口迁移背景下，老龄化对我国经济高质量发展的影响在不同时期表现迥异。2000-2005年，老龄化对经济高质量发展产生的负向影响较小；2006-2012年，前者对后者产生正面促进作用；2013-2018年前者对后者又产生显著负向影响。

根据研究结论提出以下政策建议：一是健全政府评价机制，完善综合评价结构，科学合理的探索符合当地经济高质量发展的路径；二是积极响应国家人口政策，加大国内人力资本的发展，特别是教育人力资本的发展；三是加大人才引进力度和鼓励年轻劳动力回乡创业，同时政府应提供相应的技术、资金和政策支持，吸引投资，为人才引进创造条件；四是顺应人口迁移趋势的潮流，未雨绸缪，多措并举，积极应对人口老龄化。

关键词：老龄化 人口迁移 经济高质量发展

Aging is currently an important feature of changes in the global population structure, and it has had a profound impact on the socio-economic development of countries and regions in the world. As a developing country that is about to enter an aging society, China's population aging poses huge challenges to high-quality economic development. Based on panel data from the year 2000 to 2018, Cobb-Douglas production function and the Solow economic growth model are used to study the impact of aging on high-quality economic development. The results show that: (i) On the whole, the current level of high-quality economic development in my country is generally low.. The average value of the high-quality economic development index from the year 2000 to 2018 is 0.144. According to the level of high-quality economic development, 30 provinces and cities are divided into star, intermediate and backward types. The star-shaped provinces and cities are all located in the eastern region, and the central and western regions are both intermediate and backward provinces. (ii) When considering the factors of population migration, aging still has a restraining effect on high-quality economic development, but the restraining effect is weakening. Among them, the degree of negative impact of aging on the high-quality economic development, from strong to weak, is: Deeply aging（net population outflow） areas > Deeply aging（net population inflow）areas≈Shallowly aging(net population outflow) areas >  Shallowly aging(net population inflow) areas . (iii) When the factor of population migration is not considered, aging has had a negative impact on the high-quality development of China's economy during the study period. Among them, the negative impact of deeply aging areas is twice that of lightly aging areas. (iiii) The regression analysis by periods shows that in the context of population migration, the effects of aging on the high-quality economic development of our country have different results in different periods. The negative impact of aging on the high-quality economic development is relatively small from the year 2000 to 2005; the former has a positive effect on the latter from the year 2006 to 2012; the former has a significant negative impact on the latter from the year 2013 to 2018.

Based on the empirical results, the following policy opinions are proposed. The first is to improve the government’s assessment mechanism，improve the comprehensive evaluation structure, and scientifically and rationally explore a path that meets the high-quality development of the local economy. The second is to actively respond to the national population policy and increase the development of domestic human capital, especially the development of educational human capital. The third is to increase the introduction of talents and encourage young laborers to return to their hometowns to start businesses. At the same time, the government should provide corresponding technical, financial and policy support to attract investment and create conditions for the introduction of talents. The fourth is to follow the trend of population migration, take precautions, take multiple measures, and actively respond to the aging of the population.

Keywords：Aging； Population migration；High-quality economic