国际经济与贸易学院知识库

在全球化程度不断加深的今天，世界经济领域出现了两个突出现象：一是基于全球价值链的垂直专业化分工已成为经济全球化的一个突出表征，增加值贸易逐渐成为贸易的主流。在垂直专业化生产下，不同国家利用各自的竞争优势生产产品，提高本国产品的竞争力，融入全球价值链中。二是世界经济周期协动性增强，国家之间呈现一种“一荣俱荣，一损俱损”的关系，2008年的美国金融危机以及2020年新冠疫情带来的经济下滑即为很好的示例。本文正是基于上述两个重要现象，研究增加值贸易对中国与世界经济周期协动性的影响，揭示一般贸易因垂直专业化分工造成的“统计假象”对经济周期协动性的影响，为中国更好的融入全球价值链中，把握经济周期波动规律，促进经济发展提供参考依据。

根据数据的可获得性以及研究意义，本文选取北美、欧盟以及亚太地区为研究样本。首先依据实际GDP增长率分析中国与世界经济发展变化趋向；然后通过1996-2019年实际GDP增长率测算皮尔逊相关系数来检验中国与世界是否存在经济周期协同变化的情况；最后基于多区域投入产出模型，运用WWZ方法分解出中国与北美、欧盟以及亚太地区贸易中的增加值(DVA)，然后利用分解出的DVA测算出相关指标，从而来分析增加值贸易对中国与世界经济周期协动关系的作用。本文的研究内容主要分两部分：理论研究和实证研究。理论研究是对垂直专业化分工背景下增加值贸易以及世界经济周期协动性的相关文献以及理论机制进行梳理；实证研究主要采用WIOD2016版世界投入产出表数据，以北美、欧盟和亚太地区为代表，共计38个样本国，构建相关研究变量和工具变量。先从国别角度出发，对38个样本国进行OLS估计分析，再分别对不同区域及不同类型经济体进行OLS估计分析，其次采用IV估计方法，实证分析增加值贸易对中国与世界经济周期协动性的影响，最终进行稳健性检验。

基于以上研究思路，本文得到以下主要结论：

（1）依据实际GDP增长率分析中国与世界经济发展变动的趋势，发现中国与世界经济的波动趋势逐渐一致。（2）通过1996-2019年实际GDP增长率计算Pearson相 关系数，证明了中国与世界的确存在经济周期协同变动的情况，而且二者之间的协同效应显著增强。（3）实证方面，以DVA衡量双边贸易强度，实证分析得出增加值贸易对中国与世界经济周期的协动性具有显著的积极影响，稳健性检验进一步证实了这个结果。这种影响不仅独立存在，也会放大中国进行国际贸易对其与世界经济周期之间的协同程度。这表明，随着全球垂直专业化生产的发展，增加值贸易成为世界经济周期通过贸易传递的重要途径，增加值贸易能够显著而稳定地传导经济波动，双边的增加值贸易程度越高，中国与世界经济周期之间的协动性越明显。

With the deepening of globalization, two prominent phenomena have emerged in the world economy. First, vertical specialization based on global value chains has become a prominent feature of economic globalization, value-added trade has gradually become the mainstream of trade. Under the vertical specialization production system, different countries make use of their competitive advantages to produce products, enhance the competitiveness of their own products, integrated into the global value chain. Second, the world economic cycle has become more coordinated, and countries have shown a “Rise together, fall together”relationship. The US financial crisis in 2008 and the economic downturn brought about by the new crown epidemic in 2020 are good examples. Based on these two important phenomena, this paper studies the impact of value-added trade on the common flow of China and the world economic cycle.to reveal the impact of the “Statistical illusion”caused by the vertical specialization of general trade on the co-movement of economic cycle, so as to better integrate China into the global value chain and grasp the law of economic cycle fluctuation, to provide reference for promoting economic development.

According to the availability of data and the significance of the study, this paper selects North America, the European Union and the asia-pacific region as the research sample. First, we analyze the trend of China’s and the world’s economic development according to the real GDP growth rate, and then we test whether there is a coordinated change of economic cycles between China and the world through the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient of real GDP growth rate from 1996 to 2019 Finally, we use WWZ method to decompose the value added (DVA) of China’s trade with North America, European Union and asia-pacific based on multi-regional Input-output model, and then use the decomposed DVA to calculate the related indexes, so as to analyze the value-added trade on China and the world business cycle synergy relationship. This paper is divided into theoretical research and empirical research. Theoretical research is to sort out the relevant literature and theoretical mechanism of value-added trade and world economic cycle co-movement under the background of vertical specialization; empirical research mainly uses WIOD 2016 world input-output table data, taking North America, European Union and asia-pacific region as representative, 38sample countries were constructed. From the country perspective, 38sample countries are estimated by OLS, and then different regions and different types of economies are estimated by OLS, empirical study of value-added trade on China and the impact of the World Economic Cycle Synergy, the final test of robustness.

Based on the above research ideas, the main conclusions of this document are as follows:

(1) based on the real GDP growth rate, this paper analyzes the trend of economic development between China and the world, and finds that the trend of economic fluctuation between China and the world tends to be consistent. (2) the Pearson correlation coefficient calculated by the real GDP growth rate from 1996 to 2019 proves that China and the world do have the situation of the coordinated change of economic cycle, and the synergy effect between them is obviously enhanced. (3) on the positive side, the strength of bilateral trade measured by trade value added (TVA) is verified to have a significant positive impact on the co-operation between China and the world economic cycle, which is further confirmed by the robustness test. This kind of influence not only exists independently, but also magnifies the influence of China’s international trade on the world economic cycle co-movement. This shows that, in the context of global vertical specialization, value-added trade is the core channel of trade transmission in the world economic cycle. Value-added trade can transmit economic fluctuations significantly and steadily, and the greater the bilateral value-added trade, the greater the degree of co-ordination between China and the world economic cycle.