统计与数据科学学院知识库

2014年环保部和国土资源部在《全国土壤污染状况调查公报》中明确指出：土壤环境状况不容乐观：全国土壤点位污染超标率为16.1%，其中耕地的污染超标率高达19.4%，耕地的土壤环境状况令人担忧。甘肃省生态环境脆弱，耕地自然条件相对较差，也是我国重要的生态屏障保护区，西部地区粮食主产区，对甘肃省耕地生态补偿的量化研究，不但能缓解因耕地资源分布利用不均而引起的粮食安全、经济发展和生态保护等，还将会对甘肃省的经济发展和生态环境具有重要意义。

论文在生态文明建设背景下，以甘肃省耕地生态补偿为研究对象，采用甘肃省2013-2018年土地面积数据、人口数据、土地生产消费数据以及农产品价格等数据，通过对甘肃省生态系统服务价值和三维生态足迹等内容的研究，最终对甘肃省耕地生态补偿的量化方法及结果进行了研究，具体工作和得到结论如下：

第一，为加强对土地价值量化的准确性，在现有基础耕地价值量化模型的基础上，建立了甘肃省耕地生态补偿量化新模型：（1）在测算耕地生态消费量时，选用三维生态足迹从时间和空间角度对耕地生态消费量进行测算，对耕地消费量的度量更为准确。（2）构建模型时，首次尝试将三维生态足迹模型与生态系统服务价值结合，并依据三维生态足迹确定补偿阈值，建立耕地生态补偿的支付/受偿标准。（3）依据研究区的生态足迹变化量与GDP的变化间的关系，对2018年甘肃省14个市州的耕地生态补偿优先级进行修正。

第二，通过对甘肃省耕地生态补偿量的测算，得到如下量化分析结论：（1）在省域视角下，甘肃省耕地生态补偿总量波动较大，其中2017年获得的补偿量最高为4910.49万元 ，2015年支付的耕地生态补偿量最高为13052.43万元。甘肃省耕地资源供需严重失衡，在2013-2018年，甘肃省除2013年和2017年为生态盈余外，其余年份均为生态赤字状态，而甘肃省的足迹深度在0.96到1.08间波动变化，说明在2013-2018年甘肃省的耕地资源利用率较高，甚至部分年份的耕地资源并未满足当地的资源消耗。耕地生态服务价值的变化较大，在研究期内，2017年耕地提供的生态系统服务价值最低（14.13亿元），在2015年耕地提供的生态系统服务价值最高（16.52亿元）。（2）在市域视角下，各市州生态补偿量差距较大，各市州在2018年耕地生态补偿量支付最高的省份为定西市（7885.40万元），获得耕地生态补偿最高的为庆阳市（6939.24万元），相差14824.64万元。各市州耕地资源失衡严重，大部分市州在2013-2018年一直处于生态赤字状态，并且在研究期内足迹深度均表现出较为明显的上升，说明各市州的耕地资源一直在过度消耗。各市州的生态系统服务供给能力不断下降。在2013-2018年各州间耕地的供给能力相差较大，在2018年，耕地生态服务价值最高的张掖市为1.054亿元，最低的嘉峪关市为0.007亿元，相差1.047亿元。

In 2014,the Ministry of Environmental Protection and the Ministry of Land and Resources of the People's Republic of China made it clear in the bulletin of the national soil pollution survey that the soil environmental situation is not optimistic:the pollution rate of soil sites nationwide is 16.1%,of which the pollution rate of cultivated land is as high as 19.4%,the soil environmental status of cultivated land is a cause for concern. The natural conditions of cultivated land in Gansu Province are relatively poor,and it is also an important ecological protection area in China,the main grain production area in the western region,and the quantitative research on the ecological compensation of cultivated land in Gansu province,it will not only alleviate the food security,economic development and ecological protection caused by the uneven distribution and utilization of cultivated land resources,but also be of great significance to the economic development and ecological environment of Gansu Province.Therefore,under the background of ecological civilization construction,after consulting a lot of literature related to ecological compensation of cultivated land,this paper takes ecological compensation of cultivated land in Gansu Province as the final research object.From the view of ecosystem service value,this paper introduces a three-dimensional ecological footprint model,and distinguishes the stock and flow of cultivated land capital based on time dimension.Through the quantitative research on the ecological compensation of cultivated land in Gansu Province, the conclusion is as follows:

Under the background of the construction of ecological civilization, this paper takes the ecological compensation of cultivated land in Gansu Province as the research object,and uses the data of land area,population, land production and consumption,and agricultural product price of Gansu Province from 2013 to 2018,based on the study of ecosystem service value and three-dimensional ecological footprint in Gansu province,the quantitative methods and results of ecological compensation for cultivated land in Gansu Province were studied:

First,in order to enhance the accuracy of land value quantification,a new model of ecological compensation for cultivated land in Gansu Province was established on the basis of the existing basic cultivated land value quantification model:(1) in measuring the ecological consumption of cultivated land,it is more accurate to measure cultivated land consumption by using three-dimensional ecological footprint to measure cultivated land ecological consumption from time and space.(2) when constructing the model,it is the first time to combine the three- dimensional ecological footprint model with the ecosystem service value, and according to the ecological consumption surplus/deficit of the study area,establish the payment/compensation standard of the cultivated land ecological compensation respectively.(3) according to the relationship between the change of ecological footprint and the change of GDP,the ecological compensation priority of cultivated land in 14 cities and states of Gansu Province in 2018 was revised.

Second,through the calculation of the cultivated land ecological compensation in Gansu Province,the following quantitative analysis conclusions are obtained:(1) from the provincial perspective,the total amount of cultivated land ecological compensation in Gansu Province fluctuates greatly,among which the highest amount of compensation in 2017 was 49.104 million yuan,in 2015,the highest amount of farmland ecological compensation paid was 130,524,300 yuan.In 2013-2018, except 2013 and 2017,the supply and demand of cultivated land resources in Gansu province were in ecological surplus,the other years were in ecological deficit, and the depth of footprint in Gansu Province fluctuated from 0.96 to 1.08,the results showed that the utilization rate of cultivated land resources in Gansu province was high from 2013 to 2018,and even some years' cultivated land resources did not satisfy the local resource consumption.The ecological service value of cultivated land has changed greatly. During the study period,the value of ecosystem service provided by cultivated land was the lowest (1.413 billion yuan) in 2017 and the highest (1.652 billion yuan) in 2015.(2) from the perspective of city region, the difference of ecological compensation amount between cities and states is large.In 2018,the highest amount of compensation paid by cities and states for farmland by Santa Claus was in Dingxi (78.854 million yuan),and the highest amount of ecological compensation for cultivated land was in Qingyang (69.392 million yuan), Most cities and states have been in the state of ecological deficit from 2013 to 2018,and the depth of footprint has increased obviously during the study period, which indicates that the cultivated land resources in cities and states have been over-consumed.The supply capacity of ecosystem services in cities and states is declining.In 2013-2018,the supply capacity of cultivated land varies greatly between different states.In 2018,the value of cultivated land ecological services in Zhangye was 105.4 million yuan,and the lowest in Jiayuguan City was 100.7 million yuan, with a difference of 104.7 million yuan.