统计与数据科学学院知识库

消费在一国经济发展中具有十分重要的地位，它与投资、出口被并称为拉动经济增长的“三驾马车”。面对全球经济下行的压力，以生产和出口为导向的传统经济发展模式遭遇瓶颈，居民消费作为拉动经济增长的动力，成为当前经济问题研究的核心内容。而在互联网时代下诞生的移动支付突破了传统支付方式的时空限制，为提升居民家庭消费水平提供了新途径。本文采用2017年中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）数据，从支付方式角度出发，运用描述性分析、经典计量经济学方法和空间计量经济学方法，基于微观视角研究金融科技产品——移动支付对居民家庭消费支出总额及消费结构升级的影响，并探讨该影响在地区间存在的关联性和异质性，为移动支付促进家庭消费、推动家庭消费结构升级提供微观证据。

首先，对现有文献进行梳理归纳的基础上，利用描述性分析、方差分析、莫兰指数、基尼系数对移动支付与居民家庭消费的现状和差异性进行分析，发现我国移动支付用户规模和移动支付在网民中的渗透率持续增加，移动支付交易规模总体呈持续上升趋势；居民消费支出持续增长，整体呈稳中向好的趋势。此外，居民消费支出的变化不仅是总量的变化，还体现在居民家庭消费结构的变化；移动支付和消费支出在户主特征、家庭特征和地区特征之间存在显著性差异；中国各省居民家庭移动支付使用情况、消费总支出及恩格尔系数存在明显的空间相关性，其中，移动支付使用情况与消费支出总额的集聚特征存在较高的相似度，即低值集聚省份较多，大部分地区集中在发展相对落后的西部地区，而高值集聚区主要为发展水平较高的东部地区，且集聚较为密集。恩格尔系数的Moran's值分布较为分散，地区集聚状况与移动支付和消费支出总额相反；居民家庭消费总额、消费类型和移动支付使用情况在地区间及地区内部均存在较大的差别。

其次，通过分析移动支付对居民家庭消费的影响行为、影响机制和影响效应而构建回归模型研究移动支付对居民家庭消费支出和消费结构升级的影响，进一步探究该影响在城乡、地区、收入阶层、文化程度和消费类型方面的异质性，发现移动支付的使用能促进居民家庭消费支出，具有使居民家庭消费结构从以生存型消费为主转变为以发展型消费和享受型消费为主的潜力；异质性分析发现：移动支付对城镇地区和农村地区居民家庭消费支出和消费结构升级均有显著的促进作用，但对农村地区的促进作用更大；移动支付对东、中西部地区居民家庭消费影响的差异性主要体现在其能充分释放中等收入家庭的消费潜力，促进低收入家庭的消费水平和家庭消费结构的优化升级；对文化程度较高的居民，移动支付对其消费支出总额和家庭消费结构升级的影响作用小于文化程度相对较低的居民；移动支付对食品消费的影响最小。

最后，基于研究结论，从加强移动支付的风险管理，保障移动支付的安全性；充分发挥移动支付工具的普惠特性，打破欠发达地区消费结构优化升级的瓶颈；加长移动支付的产业链领域，推动移动支付与其他产业融合发展；凭借互联网技术的优势，进一步提升移动支付技术与功能的创新方面，提出了完善移动支付发展促进居民家庭消费的相关政策建议。

Consumption plays a very important role in a country's economic development. It is called the "troika" that drives economic growth together with investment and export. Facing the downward pressure of the global economy, the traditional economic development model oriented by production and export has encountered bottlenecks. As the driving force of economic growth, household consumption has become the core content of current economic research. However, mobile payment, which was born in the Internet age, broke through the time and space limitation of traditional payment methods, and provided a new way to improve household consumption level. In this thesis, using the data of China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) in 2017, from the perspective of payment methods, using descriptive analysis, classical econometric methods and spatial econometric methods, we study the impact of mobile payment, a financial technology product, on the total household consumption expenditure and the upgrading of consumption structure from a micro perspective, and discuss the relevance and heterogeneity of the impact between regions, providing micro evidence for mobile payment to promote household consumption and promote the upgrading of household consumption structure.

Firstly, on the basis of combing and summarizing the existing literature, this thesis analyzes the current situation and differences between mobile payment and household consumption by using descriptive analysis, ANOVA, Moran index and Gini coefficient. It is found that the scale of mobile payment users and the penetration rate of mobile payment among netizens in China continue to increase, and the overall scale of mobile payment transactions continues to rise; Residents' consumption expenditure continues to grow, and the overall trend is stable and improving. In addition, the change of household consumption expenditure is not only the change of total amount, but also the change of household consumption structure; there are significant differences between mobile payment and consumption expenditure in the characteristics of head of household, family and region; there are obvious spatial correlations among the use of mobile payment, total consumption expenditure and Engel coefficient of household in China's provinces, Among them, the agglomeration characteristics of mobile payment usage and total consumption expenditure have a high degree of similarity, that is, there are more low-value agglomeration provinces. Most areas are concentrated in the western regions where development is relatively underdeveloped, while the high-value agglomeration areas are mainly the eastern regions with a relatively high level of development, and the agglomeration is relatively dense. The Moran's value distribution of Engel's coefficient is relatively scattered, and the regional agglomeration is opposite to the total amount of mobile payment and consumption expenditure; there are large gaps in the total amount of household consumption, consumption types and the use of mobile payment between regions and within regions.

Secondly, by analyzing the influence behavior, mechanism and effect of mobile payment on household consumption, this thesis constructs a regression model to study the influence of mobile payment on household consumption expenditure and consumption structure upgrading, and further explores the heterogeneity of the influence in urban and rural areas, regions, income class, education level and consumption type, and finds that the use of mobile payment can promote household consumption expenditure and has the potential to transform household consumption structure from survival consumption to development consumption and enjoyment consumption; Heterogeneity analysis shows that mobile payment has a significant role in promoting household consumption expenditure and consumption structure upgrades in urban and rural areas, but it has a greater role in rural areas; the difference in the impact of mobile payment on household consumption in eastern, central and western regions is mainly reflected in its ability to fully release the consumption potential of middle-income families and promote the optimization and upgrading of the consumption level and household consumption structure of low-income households, For the residents with higher education level, the effect of mobile payment on their total consumption expenditures and the upgrading of household consumption structure is less than that of the residents with lower education level; the impact of mobile payment on food consumption is the least.

Finally, based on the research conclusions, from strengthening the risk management of mobile payment, ensuring the security of mobile payment; giving full play to the inclusive characteristics of mobile payment tools, breaking the bottleneck of the optimization and upgrading of consumption structure in underdeveloped regions; lengthening the industry chain field of mobile payment, Promoting the integrated development of mobile payment and other industries; relying on the advantages of Internet technology to further enhance the innovation of mobile payment technology and functions, and proposing relevant policy recommendations to improve the development of mobile payment and promote household consumption.