金融学院知识库

       近年来，随着中国经济的不断发展，世界各国的金融机构和私人部门对人民币的认可度不断增加。随着人民币国际化的不断深入，人民币资产逐渐成为海外投资者投资保值、规避风险的主要选择，人民币在资本项目下的使用规模也逐年提高。与此同时，汇率制度也在不断改革。随着人民币在资本项目下使用规模不断提升，汇率弹性不断增加，人民币国际化与人民币汇率之间作用关系变的更加复杂，受海外投资者影响的风险不断加大。当人民币国际化程度发生变动时，人民币资产的投资回报率就会相应的发生变化，海外投资者会通过购入或抛售一定份额的人民币资产调整自己的投资组合，来增添收益或者平衡风险，进而会对境外人民币的需求形成冲击，影响人民币汇率水平，加剧汇率波动。反之，当人民币汇率水平和汇率波动幅度发生变化时，同样会对人民币国际化造成冲击。为此，研究人民币国际化与人民币汇率之间的相互作用关系，提出稳慎推进人民币国际化和深化人民币汇率形成机制改革的具体策略是理论界和实务界亟待解决的重要课题。

       本文在厘清人民币国际化与人民币汇率水平和汇率波动间相互作用机制的基础上，选取2009年8月到2021年1月的样本数据，利用贝叶斯向量自回归模型实证研究相关变量间的作用关系。结果表明，人民币国际化水平的增加会引起人民币升值；人民币升值会对人民币国际化产生正向效应；同样，人民币国际化水平的增加会导致人民币汇率波幅加剧；而人民币汇率波幅提高会对人民币国际化产生负向效应。针对本文研究结论，结合我国经济金融发展实际，本文最后从稳慎推进人民币国际化、稳妥推进资本账户开放和深化人民币汇率形成机制改革等三个角度提出了推进人民币国际化的政策建议。

In recent years, China's economy is growing faster and faster, the recognition of the renminbi by financial institutions and private sectors around the world has continued to increase. With the deepening of the internationalization of the RMB, RMB assets have gradually become the main choice for overseas investors to maintain investment value and avoid risks, and the use of RMB in capital financial projects has been increasing year by year. With the development of RMB internationalization, the exchange rate system is constantly reforming. As the scale of the use of the RMB in capital finance continues to increase, the flexibility of the external value of the currency continues to increase, and the mechanism of action between the internationalization of the RMB and the external value of the currency has become more complex, and the risk of being affected by overseas investors continues to increase. When the degree of renminbi internationalization changes, an impact will put on the return on investment of RMB . Overseas investors will adjust their investment portfolios by buying or selling a certain share of renminbi assets to increase returns or balance risks, and then It will have an impact on the demand for renminbi overseas, affect the level of the renminbi exchange rate, and exacerbate exchange rate fluctuations. Conversely, When the yuan's external value fluctuates, it will also be hit. To this end, this paper explores the dynamic relationship between the three, aims to provide proposal for safe impeling RMB internationalization and External value of RMB.

Based on clarifying the interaction mechanism between RMB internationalization and RMB exchange rate level and exchange rate fluctuation, this paper selects the latest sample data and uses Bayesian vector autoregressive model (BVAR) to conduct empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between the three. The results show that the increase in the level of renminbi internationalization will increase the level of renminbi exchange rate and exchange rate fluctuations; the increase of the renminbi exchange rate level will increase the degree of renminbi internationalization; the increase in exchange rate volatility will cause the level of renminbi internationalization to decrease. In view of the research conclusions of this article and the reality of my country's economic development, this article proposes policy recommendations to promote the internationalization of the RMB from the three perspectives of steadily and prudently advancing the internationalization of the RMB, progressively advancing capital account opening, and maintaining the relative stability of the RMB exchange rate.