统计与数据科学学院知识库

水是人类赖以生存和发展的不可替代的自然资源。 水资源承载力的状态是人与水资源关系的一种反映， 水资源承载力的评价研究对于有效应对各方压力和可能发生的危险具有重要意义。 随着甘肃省人口规模的增大和社会经济的发展， 水资源匮乏、 水资源安全及水环境恶化已成为制约甘肃省可持续发展的重要问题， 因此， 对甘肃省的水资源承载力进行评价和研究具有现实意义。
本文以甘肃省各市（州） 为切入点， 基于 2009-2018 年的面板数据， 建立“水资源—社会—经济—生态环境” 四维水资源承载力评价指标体系， 运用熵权法计算各维度中具体指标的动态权重， 结合 TOPSIS 法对甘肃省 14 个市（州） 的水资源承载力进行定量评价并对评价结果进行等级划分， 从空间和时间两个角度比较分析各地区水资源承载力的优势与不足， 运用障碍度模型对 2018 年影响甘肃省各地区水资源承载力的主要障碍因子进行分析， 得到以下结论：
1.甘肃省水资源承载力整体呈上升发展趋势

2018 年甘肃省 14 个市（州） 中处于Ⅲ级水平的地区相对 2009 年增加 1 个， 处于Ⅴ级水平的地区数保持不变， 处于Ⅳ级水平的地区数减少 1 个。
2.甘肃省各市（州） 的水资源承载力水平差异较大
2009 年甘肃省 14 个市（州） 的水资源承载力空间差异度为评价年间最小值 0.322，2016 年表现为评价年间最大值 0.408。 2018 年水资源承载力主要表现为兰州市、 嘉峪关市和临夏州间差异较大。
3.甘肃省各市（州） 的水资源承载力变动情况不一且制约因素不同
2009-2018 年各市（州） 水资源承载力的综合评价结果波动情况不一， 且在不同年份受到各维度中具体指标的影响程度不同。 2018 年甘肃省水资源承载力提升面临的障碍因素主要有水资源维度中的人均水资源量和人均供水量等； 社会维度中的人口密度和人口自然增长率等； 经济维度中的人均 GDP 和经济密度； 生态环境维度中的城市污水处理厂日处理能力等， 但各地区所需改进的侧重方面又有所不同。
最后， 本文基于实证分析结果和现实发展情况， 对甘肃省如何在水资源、 社会、 经济和生态环境四个方面做出改进以提高水资源承载力提出相关对策建议。

Water is an irreplaceable natural resource for human survival and
development. The state of water resources carrying capacity is a reflection of the relationship between people and water resources, the evaluation and research of water resources carrying capacity is of great significance for effectively coping with the pressures and possible dangers of all parties. With the increase in the population size and the development of social economy, the deficient of water resources, the safety of water resources and the deterioration of the water environment have become important issues restricting the sustainable development of Gansu Province. Therefore, it is of practical significance to evaluate and study water resources carrying capacity.
The article takes the cities (prefectures) of Gansu Province as the starting
point and bases on the panel data from 2009 to 2018, establishing a
four-dimensional water resource carrying capacity evaluation index system for water resources-society-economy-ecological environment, and uses the entropy method to calculate the dynamic weights of specific indicators in each dimension, combines with the TOPSIS method to quantitatively evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of 14 cities (prefectures) in Gansu Province and classifies the evaluation results, analyzing the advantages and shortcomings of water resources carrying capacity in various regions from the perspectives of space and time, and uses the obstacle degree model to analyze the main obstacle factors that affect the water resources carrying capacity of various regions in Gansu Province in 2018, getting the following conclusions:
1. The overall water resources carrying capacity of Gansu Province is on
the rise.
In 2018, among the 14 cities (prefectures) of Gansu Province, the number
of regions at level III increased by one compared to 2009, the number of regions at level V remained unchanged, and the number of regions at level IV decreased by one.
2. The level of water resources carrying capacity varies greatly among
cities (prefectures) in Gansu Province.
In 2009, the spatial difference of water resources carrying capacity of the
14 cities (prefectures) of Gansu Province was the minimum value of 0.322
during the evaluation year, and in 2016 it was the maximum value of 0.408. In 2018, it was mainly manifested in the large differences between Lanzhou City, Jia yuguan City and Linxia Prefecture.
3. The changes in the water resources carrying capacity of the cities
(prefectures) in Gansu Province and the restrictive factors are different.
The fluctuations of the comprehensive evaluation results of the water
resources carrying capacity of each city (state) from 2009 to 2018 were different, and the degree of influence of specific indicators in each dimension was different in different years. In 2018, the obstacles to the improvement of the water resources carrying capacity of Gansu Province are mainly the per capita water resources and water supply in the water resources dimension; the population density and natural population growth rate in the social dimension; the per capita GDP and economic density in the economic dimension; the daily treatment capacity of urban sewage treatment plants in the ecological environment dimension and so on, but the focus of improvement in each region is different.
Finally, basing on the results of empirical analysis and the actual
development situation, this article proposes relevant countermeasures and suggestions on how to improve the water resources, society, economy and ecological environment in Gansu Province in order to increase the water resources carrying capacity.