统计与数据科学学院知识库

在经济的发展过程中，其中一个非常重要的影响因素就是人口问题，我国在
人口问题上，经过多年的计划生育政策，使得目前人口发展的主要矛盾开始由人
口数量向人口结构转变，少子化严重、劳动力缺乏、老龄化逐渐严重、性别比失
调等多方面的问题，已经成为了经济发展过程中的严重阻碍。随着人口结构问题
的日益严重，社会经济结构也逐渐的扭曲，并使得经济发展动力逐渐缺失。而人
口结构的均衡，则能够促进经济的稳健发展，以及社会的和谐进步。因此，有必
要对人口结构和经济发展的内在联系进行深入分析，从而为两者能够相互协调发
展提供科学的理论基础。
在本文的分析中，以甘肃省人口作为研究对象，从人口总量，人口年龄、
性别、文化以及城乡和产业结构等几个方面加以分析，探究甘肃省人口结构变化
特征，同时，依据甘肃省特有的地理位置、经济发展状况，构建人口结构系统与
区域经济系统，建立耦合协调模型，采用定量分析方法，分析了区域经济与人口
结构之间的关系，研究结果显示，从耦合度来看，这两个要素表现出较高的关联
关系，但是，不合理的内部结构，导致耦合协调程度较低，随着国家和当地政府
对甘肃省发展的关注与投入，耦合协调度逐渐提升，逐渐从失调转变为勉强协调。另外，在发展指数方面，人口结构要比经济发展指数低，这就导致了经济的综合发展水平受到限制，发展不稳定。
鉴于此，甘肃省要实现丝绸之路经济带下的人口与经济协调发展，应加快建
设基础医疗体系，提高居民生育意愿；建立合理的老年人口保障制度；增加投资，实现人口文化结构的改善；调整产业布局，转换增长动力；因地制宜，促进经济均衡发展。

The population problem is an important factor affecting the rapid economic and social development.Over the years,the family planning policy implemented in my country has achieved remarkable results.The main contradicyion in population development has begun to shift from population to demographic structure,with serious declining birthrate,lack of labor,and gender ratio.Many problems such as imbalance and increasing aging have restricted my countryˊs economic development.A distorted population structure will not be conductive to the rational layout of the social and economic structure,and will also reduce the driving force for economic development.On the contrary,a balanced population structure help promote social harmony and stability and development.Therefore,it isnecessary to conduct an in-depth analysis of the internal relationship between population structure and economic development,so as to provide a scientific theoretical basis for the coordinated development of the two.

Through the analysis of the total population,population gender structure,population age structure,and population cultural structure,and population culutural structure in Gansu Province,this paper explores the characteristics of the population structure change in Gansu Province.At the same time,based on the unique geographical location.Based on the economic development status,the population structure system and the economic system are constructed,and the coupling coordination model is established.The quantitative analysis of the relationship between the population structure and the regional economy in Gansu Province show 's population structure and economic development.There is a high degree of coupling,but due to the irrationality of its internal structure,the degree of coupling and coordination is low.With the national and local governments' attention and investment in the development of Gansu Province,the degree of coupling and coordination has begun to transition from the past maladjustment and decline to Reluctantiy couple the coordination phase.In addition,in recent years,the population structure development index has been lower than the economic development,so that the comprehensive development level is low,

In view of this,if Gansu Province wants to achieve the coordinated development of population and economy under the Silk Road New Economic Belt,it should speed up the construction of a basic medical system and increase residents ' willingness to bear children;establish a reasonable security system for the elderly;increase investment and improve the cultural structure of the population;Adjust the industrial layout and transform the growth momentum;adjust measures to local conditions to promote balanced economic development.