统计与数据科学学院知识库

近年来，随着经济的高速增长，对外开放的程度不断加深，婚姻在维系我国家庭和谐中所起的纽带作用也越来越弱，直接体现在我国的离婚率的逐年攀升。因此，本文所关注的问题是：我国经济增长与离婚率之间是否存在关系？本文基于国内外学者相关文献的基础上，结合定性分析和定量分析来探讨两者之间的关系。

首先，本文基于莱文格和贝克尔等人的婚姻经济学理论、马斯洛的需求层次理论阐述了经济增长与离婚率关系之间的互动机制。

其次，本文先通过比较分析方法探讨了自建国以来我国不同经济增长阶段的离婚现状，发现：我国离婚率在经济曲折发展阶段由建国初期的慢增长到1950年婚姻法颁布的快增长再到文革时期的骤降；由于改革开放步伐的推进，多元文化不断冲击着传统婚姻观念，我国的离婚率在经济稳步前进阶段跌宕起伏，整体呈平稳上升趋势；在经济高质量发展阶段，我国的离婚率呈直线上升趋势。然后基于国际间的比较结果发现发达国家的高离婚率已经成为普遍的现象，发展中国家婚姻的稳定性也随着经济的增长正在面临着挑战。

最后，本文从不同区域及城市分异的双重视角来探讨我国经济增长与离婚率之间的关系，基于格兰杰因果检验方法，先利用时间序列数据对全国层次的离婚现象进行分析，结果发现我国人均GDP每增加1%，则离婚率平均上升2.3871%；然后利用面板数据从我国的不同区域及不同等级城市的双重视角来探讨两者之间的区域差异，基于我国不同区域视角的结果表明东部地区经济增长不会促进离婚率的变动，而离婚率的变动会促进经济的增长；中部地区离婚率波动会轻微地促进经济增长，相反，经济增长不会促进离婚率的增加；西部地区经济增长可以提高离婚率，但离婚率的升高不会促进当地经济的发展。基于城市分异的视角可以得出一线、二线城市经济增长和离婚率之间存在单向的格兰杰因果关系，而三线城市经济增长和离婚率之间不存在格兰杰因果关系。

通过理论分析和实证检验相结合发现改革开放四十多年来我国离婚率的不断上升在一定程度上反映了我国经济增长的结果，暗示着古老的中国已经抖掉了历史的尘埃，正朝着文明和进步的现代化国家迈进，但是离婚也会给家庭和社会带来伤害。因此，合理抑制高离婚率的趋势才更为关键。

In recent years, with the rapid economic growth, the degree of opening to the outside world has been deepened. Marriage plays an increasingly weak role in maintaining family harmony, which is directly reflected in the increasing divorce rate in China year by year. Therefore, the question this paper focuses on is whether there is a relationship between economic growth and divorce rate in China? Based on the literature of domestic and foreign scholars, this paper combines qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to explore the relationship between the two.

Firstly, based on the economic theory of marriage of Levenger and Becker, and Maslow's hierarchy of needs, this paper expounds the interaction mechanism between economic growth and divorce rate.

Secondly, through comparative analysis, this paper first discusses the current situation of divorce in different stages of economic growth since the founding of the People's Republic of China, and finds that the divorce rate in the tortuous economic development stage of China from the initial slow growth to the marriage law enacted in 1950 to the steep decline in the Cultural Revolution; Due to the advance of the reform and opening up, the multi-cultural impact on the traditional concept of marriage, China's divorce rate in the stage of steady economic progress ups and downs, the overall trend of a steady rise; In the stage of high-quality economic development, the divorce rate in Our country shows a straight upward trend. Then, based on the international comparison results, it is found that the high divorce rate in developed countries has become a common phenomenon, and the stability of marriage in developing countries is also facing challenges with the economic growth.

Finally, this paper discusses the relationship between economic growth and divorce rate in China from the perspective of regional and urban differentiation. Based on the Granger causality test method, the time series data were first used to analyze the divorce phenomenon at the national level. The results showed that for every 1% increase in per capita GDP, the divorce rate increased by 2.3871% on average. Then the regional differences between different regions and cities of different levels are discussed from the dual perspective of panel data. The results from different regional perspectives show that economic growth in eastern China will not promote  divorce rate, but high divorce rate will promote economic growth. The high divorce rate in the central region slightly increases the economic growth. Conversely, economic growth does not increase the divorce rate. Economic growth in the west can raise divorce rates, but rising divorce rates will not boost the local economy. From the perspective of different levels of cities, it can be concluded that there is one-way Granger causality between economic growth and divorce rate in first-tier and second-tier cities, while there is no Granger causality between economic growth and divorce rate in third-tier cities.

Through the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical test, it is found that the rising divorce rate in China in the past 40 years of reform and opening up reflects the result of China's economic growth to a certain extent. It implies that the ancient China has shaken off the dust of history and is moving towards a democratic, civilized and progressive modern country. But divorce can also bring harm to families and society. Therefore, it is all the more important to curb the trend of high divorce rate rationally.