统计与数据科学学院知识库

                   摘 要

改革开放以来，我国的经济发展得到了高度增长，随之而来的是区域经济发展不平衡的问题。在面对如今的形势，协调发展成为了我国经济发展的主题之一。在不同的区域之间，要素流动和产业转移由于各种环境、自然、资源、历史文化以及人为因素，会造成区域经济发展的差异化，这种非均衡的要素流动以及产业转移对于发挥各个区域的比较优势、优化产业结构和协调区域经济关系有重要的作用，尤其在中国实现高质量发展的进程中，要素流动和产业转移在全国范围内的协调统筹、经济可持续发展发挥着至关重要的作用。

文章采用2000—2018年中国各省、市、自治区的面板数据，借助极差、变异系数、Theil指数、区位熵、空间计量模型等方法，从中国区域经济发展的现状、区域经济发展不平衡的现状、协调程度、要素流动、产业转移的程度、区域经济发展不平衡的影响机制等方面展开研究，得到了一些有价值的研究结论：

我国经济发展水平的空间分布特征明显，呈现出显著的正相关。沿海地区的经济发展水平明显地高于其他区域的经济发展水平。区域经济总体的离散程度变化并不剧烈，08年以前区域经济发展的不平衡性是有扩大的趋势的，但在2008年之后，区域经济发展的不平衡性在逐渐缩小，八大区域间的经济发展呈现出不太明显的收敛现象。区域经济发展的协调程度及其变化趋势通过区域经济发展收敛性来体现。我国的省域经济增长存在条件收敛，但是八大区域内部的经济发展并不都是呈现出收敛性。

中国的资本要素流动和劳动力要素流动呈现出反方向的特点，各个地区的技术扩散程度在不同的时期波动的幅度较大，没有体现出明显的规律；在2000年—2006年期间，技术要素的流动对于区域经济发展的不平衡性扩大有一定的影响。在2007年—2012年期间，劳动力要素以及资本要素的流动对于区域经济发展的不平衡性有显著的影响，中国各省份之间的资本积累一方面取决于自身的资本存量，另一方面也与地区之间的而资本流动息息相关。在2013年—2018年期间，技术要素的流动对于区域经济的发展有着重要的影响，欠发达地区靠其自主创新很难缩小与发达地区的差距，通过引入先进技术有利于促进经济发展水平向发达地区的追赶。

第一产业在八大区域间并不存在明显的产业转移；第二产业由东部沿海地区、南部沿海地区、北部沿海地区等向长江中游地区、西南地区、西北地区等区域转移；第三产业在东部地区获得较好的发展的同时，也具备向其他地区进行产业转移的条件，对于我国中西部地区的黄河中游地区、西北地区而言，承接和发展第三产业是提高经济发展水平的一个重要举措。第二产业的产业转移在2007—2018年期间对于区域经济发展的不平衡性有显著的影响，并且在一定程度上促进了区域经济发展；在2013—2018年期间，第三产业的转移对于区域经济发展有着显著的影响。

Abstract

Since the reform and opening up, China's economic development has been a high growth, followed by the imbalance of regional economic development. In the face of today's situation, coordinated development has become one of the themes of China's economic development. In different regions, factor flow and industrial transfer will cause the difference of regional economic development due to various environmental, natural, resource, historical and cultural and human factors. This kind of unbalanced factor flow and industrial transfer plays an important role in giving play to the comparative advantages of various regions, optimizing the industrial structure and coordinating regional economic relations, especially in China In the process of quality development, factor flow and industrial transfer play an important role in the national coordination and sustainable economic development.

This paper uses the panel data of China's provinces, cities and autonomous regions from 2000 to 2018, with the help of range, coefficient of variation, Theil index, location entropy, spatial econometric model and other methods, from the status quo of China's regional economic development, the status quo of regional economic development imbalance, the degree of coordination, factor flow, the degree of industrial transfer, the impact mechanism of regional economic development imbalance and other aspects Some valuable conclusions are obtained：

The spatial distribution characteristics of China's economic development level are obvious, showing a significant positive correlation. The economic development level of coastal areas is obviously higher than that of other regions. Before 2008, the imbalance of regional economic development had a tendency to expand, but after 2008, the imbalance of regional economic development was gradually narrowing, and the economic development of the eight regions showed a less obvious phenomenon of convergence. The coordination degree of regional economic development and its changing trend are reflected by the convergence of regional economic development. There is conditional convergence in China's provincial economic growth, but the internal economic development of the eight regions does not show convergence.

China's capital factor flow and labor factor flow show the characteristics of opposite direction, the degree of technology diffusion in different regions fluctuates greatly in different periods, and does not reflect the obvious law; during 2000-2006, the flow of technology factors has a certain impact on the expansion of regional economic development imbalance. During the period of 2007-2012, the flow of labor and capital factors has a significant impact on the imbalance of regional economic development. The capital accumulation among provinces in China depends on their own capital stock on the one hand, and is also closely related to the capital flow among regions on the other hand. During 2013-2018, the flow of technological elements has an important impact on the development of regional economy. It is difficult for underdeveloped regions to narrow the gap with developed regions by their independent innovation. The introduction of advanced technology is conducive to promoting the catch-up of economic development level with developed regions.

There is no obvious industrial transfer in the first industry among the eight regions; the second industry is transferred from the eastern coastal area, southern coastal area and northern coastal area to the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, southwest area and northwest area; while the third industry has a better development in the eastern region, it also has the conditions for industrial transfer to other regions, which is very important for the central and western regions of China As far as the middle reaches of the Yellow River and Northwest China are concerned, undertaking and developing the tertiary industry is an important measure to improve the level of economic development. The industrial transfer of the secondary industry has a significant impact on the imbalance of regional economic development during 2007-2018, and promotes the regional economic development to a certain extent; during 2013-2018, the transfer of the tertiary industry has a significant impact on the regional economic development.