统计与数据科学学院知识库

本文研究的问题是南北差距和东西差距近年来的演变过程及其影响因素，主要通过产业视角和要素视角两个方面进行分析，最后进行区域经济差距预测。采用2004-2018年31个省市自治区的面板数据，通过描述性统计分析、马尔可夫转移矩阵、泰尔指数、莫兰指数和莫兰散点图、地理加权回归、门槛模型等空间计量经济方法，分析得出以下研究结论：

南方和北方经济发展差距较东部和西部经济发展差距大，就各区域内部来看，南方、北方以及东部地区经济发展过程中内部差异均为下降趋势，而西部地区在经济发展过程中的内部差异呈增大状态。从产业视角来看，三次产业中对区域发展差距的影响最大的是工业，其次是消费性服务业，然后是生产性服务业，最后是第一产业农林牧渔业。从要素视角来看，外商直接投资影响效应呈现由西向东、由北到南逐渐增加的现状；人力资本影响效应呈现由西到东、由北到南递增状；创新能力影响效应呈现由西到东、由北到南递增减状；基础建设影响效应呈现由西到东、由北到南递增状；资本投入影响效应呈现由西到东、由北到南递减状。通过门槛检验发现：当资本投入作为门槛变量时，在资本投入低值区外商直接投资能够缩小区域间经济差距，在资本投入中值区人力资本在平衡区域间经济差距中起相反作用，其余起正向缩小作用的要素显著性较低，而在资本投入高值区，创新能力可以缩小区域间经济差距，但是外商直接投资显著拉大区域间经济发展差距。当外商直接投资作为门槛变量时，在外商直接投资低值区，在5%的显著性水平下，创新能力和基础建设能够有效的平衡区域间经济发展的不平衡现状，在当跨越到外商直接投资高值区时，基础建设可以显著的缩小区域经济发展差距。当人力资本作为门槛变量时，在人力资本低值区，资本投入、外商直接投资、基础建设在5%的显著性水平下，能有效缩小区域间经济差距，在人力资本高值区，外商直接投资、创新能力、基础建设能够平衡区域经济发展的差距。当基础建设作为门槛变量时，在5%的显著性水平下，基础建设的低值区中各要素组合均不能明显的缩小经济发展差距，在高值区中，资本投入、人力资本、创新能力都能很好的平衡区域经济发展差距。

This paper studies the evolution process and influencing factors of the gap between the north and the South and between the East and the West in recent years. It mainly analyzes from the perspective of industry and elements, and finally forecasts the regional economic gap. Using the panel data of 31 provinces and autonomous regions from 2004 to 2018, through descriptive statistical analysis, Markov transfer matrix, Theil index, Moran index and Moran scatter diagram, geographically weighted regression, threshold model and other spatial econometric methods, the following conclusions are drawn.

The economic development gap between the South and the north is larger than that between the East and the West. As far as the internal differences of each region are concerned, the internal differences in the process of economic development of the south, the north and the East are on the decline, while the internal differences in the process of economic development of the West are on the increase. From the perspective of industry, industry has the greatest impact on the regional development gap among the three industries, followed by consumer services, then producer services, and finally agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. From the perspective of factors, the effect of FDI increases gradually from west to East and from north to south; The effect of human capital increases from west to East and from north to south; The influence effect of innovation capability increases and decreases from west to East and from north to south; The effect of infrastructure construction increases from west to East and from north to south; The effect of capital investment decreases from west to East and from north to south. Through the threshold test, it is found that: when capital input is used as the threshold variable, FDI can narrow the regional economic gap in the low value area of capital input, human capital plays an opposite role in balancing the regional economic gap in the middle value area of capital input, and the other factors that play a positive role in narrowing the regional economic gap are less significant, while in the high value area of capital input, human capital plays an opposite role, Innovation ability can narrow the regional economic gap, but foreign direct investment significantly widens the regional economic development gap. When foreign direct investment is taken as the threshold variable, in the low value area of foreign direct investment, at the significance level of 5%, innovation ability and infrastructure can effectively balance the imbalance of regional economic development. When it crosses the high value area of foreign direct investment, infrastructure can significantly narrow the gap of regional economic development. When human capital is taken as the threshold variable, in the low value area of human capital, capital investment, foreign direct investment and infrastructure construction can effectively narrow the regional economic gap at a significant level of 5%. In the high value area of human capital, foreign direct investment, innovation ability and infrastructure construction can balance the regional economic development gap. When infrastructure is a threshold variable, at the 5% significance level, the combination of elements in the low value area of infrastructure can not significantly narrow the economic development gap. In the high value area, capital investment, human capital and innovation ability can well balance the regional economic development gap.