统计与数据科学学院知识库

摘 要

根据《湖南省旅游业“十三五”发展规划纲要》的总体要求，旅游业要以提高质量和效益为中心。目前旅游产业已经成为刺激消费和促进经济增长的有力抓手。虽然湖南省旅游产业处于快速发展时期，但是各个城市的发展水平存在着较大的差距。此外，湖南省在我国旅游发展格局中长期处于中等水平，由于缺乏区位的综合资源优势，相比旅游发展较好的省份，仍有很大的差距。因此，多层次、多角度研究湖南旅游业投入产出效率，不仅能客观评价湖南省旅游业效率，也能对湖南省旅游业投入产出要素的合理性进行判断，还能通过区域之间的比较得出地区之间的差距，从而合理配置资源、缩小地区之间的差距，提高湖南省旅游业投入产出效率。

本研究运用了改进的DEA模型、MI指数以及面板Tobit模型。首先构建旅游业投入产出效率评价指标体系；其次对湖南省区域旅游业效率分别从静态、动态的角度进行测算与比较，再次对全国31个省的旅游业投入产出效率进行测算的基础上，对比了湖南省与全国其他各省的效率，最后从宏观层面对影响湖南省旅游业投入产出效率的因素进行筛选研究。得出以下结论：第一，与传统DEA模型相比，Bootstrap-DEA模型测算静态效率能得到更真实、可靠的结果；从静态角度来看，2011-2018年湖南省14个地市的旅游业投入产出效率差距较大，发展不均衡；从动态角度来看，湖南省各地区的全要素生产率的增长主要依赖于科学技术进步。第二，在考察期内湖南省旅游业的综合效率一直处在全国中上水平，但与综合效率排名第一的重庆市相比仍存在较大差距。第三，四大因素对湖南省旅游业投入产出效率的影响不尽相同。鉴于此，本文提出“因地制宜，根据效率高低制定区域性政策”、“对标高效率地区，优化旅游产业结构”、“扩大对外开放程度，充分挖掘潜在消费市场”、“加大技术创新力度，大力发展‘互联网+旅游’模式”的政策建议。

Abstract

According to the general requirements of the "13th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Tourism in Hunan Province", the tourism industry should focus on improving quality and efficiency. At present, tourism industry has become a powerful way to stimulate consumption and promote economic growth. Although the tourism industry in Hunan Province is in a period of rapid development, there is a big gap in the development level of each city. In addition, Hunan Province in China's tourism development pattern in the medium level for a long time, due to the lack of regional comprehensive resource advantages, compared with the provinces with developed tourism, there is still a big gap. Therefore, multi-level and multi-angle study of Hunan tourism input and output efficiency, not only can objectively evaluate the efficiency of tourism industry in Hunan province, also can to judge the rationality of the Hunan tourism input and output elements, can also through regional comparison between regions, the gap between and rational allocation of resources, reducing the gap between regions, improve the efficiency of Hunan tourism input and output.

The improved DEA model, MI index and panel Tobit model are used in this study. Firstly, the index system of tourism input-output efficiency evaluation is constructed. Secondly, respectively, for the efficiency of regional tourism in Hunan province from the Angle of the static and dynamic calculation and comparison, the tourism industry in the national 31 provinces again input-output efficiency is calculated on the basis of comparing the Hunan province and other provinces of the nation's efficiency, finally from the macro level factors affecting the input-output efficiency of tourism industry in Hunan province screening study. The following conclusions are drawn: First, compared with the traditional DEA model, Bootstrap-DEA model can get more real and reliable results when measuring static efficiency; From the static point of view, the input-output efficiency of the tourism industry in the 14 prefectures and cities of Hunan Province is quite different from that in 2011 to 2018, and the development is unbalanced. From the dynamic point of view, the growth of total factor productivity of Hunan province is mainly dependent on the progress of science and technology. Second, during the inspection period, the comprehensive efficiency of tourism industry in Hunan Province has been at the national average level, but there is still a big gap between Hunan Province and Chongqing, which ranks the first in the comprehensive efficiency. Third, the four factors have different influences on the input-output efficiency of tourism industry in Hunan Province. In view of this, this article proposed "adjust measures to local conditions, according to the efficiency of high and low for a regional policy", "region to elevation efficiency, optimize the structure of the tourism industry", "expanding the opening to the outside world, fully excavate potential consumer market", "strengthening technological innovation, vigorously develop Internet + travel mode" of policy recommendations.