统计与数据科学学院知识库

自改革开放之后，我国经济迅猛发展，而长三角城市群现已成为我国经济发展最具活力、科技文化实力最强、对外开放程度最高的地区之一，产业集聚促进了长三角地区的经济发展，但也带来了环境问题，近年来长三角地区经济发展与环境保护之间的矛盾表现的越来越突出，各个市的发展更是参差不齐，如何统一长三角整体经济发展与环境效益，值得我们深思。

本文首先分别从单一产业集聚和异质产业协同集聚的角度，分析产业集聚对生态效率的影响机制，为分析其对生态效率影响提供了理论依据，并对2008-2018年长三角城市群26个地级市的产业集聚特征进行测度。其次选用超效率SBM模型计算2008-2018年各市的生态效率值，并对其进行分析，最后利用空间杜宾模型模型分析单一产业集聚和产业协同集聚对生态效率的影响，以便于为长三角城市群高质量发展提供相应理论参考。

结果表明（1）长三角地区制造业总体集聚水平呈现上升趋势，且制造业存在由东部向西部地区转移的趋势；知识密集型服务业相对于制造业集聚水平而言总体水平较低，且知识密集型服务业集聚水平总体呈现下降趋势，同时知识密集服务业逐渐转移向经济发达地区。二者协同集聚水平总体呈下降趋势，产业发展不均衡；（2）长三角地区生态效率的平均水平呈现轻微下降趋势，各个城市生态效率差异较大，可以明显的看出存在东西差异，其次上海和杭州周边城市的生态效率水平较高，同时长三角地区的生态效率高点逐渐向上海地区转移；（3）制造业集聚以及制造业和知识密集型服务业的协同集聚均能提高区域生态效率，且制造业集聚有着明显的正的空间溢出效应。而知识密集型服务业集聚促进区域生态效率提高不明显。科学技术水平能显著地提高生态效率，且有显著的正空间溢出效应，而产业结构和城市规模参数估计显著为负，且有着显著的负的空间溢出效应。但经济发展，对外开放水平对生态效率的影响并不显著。

Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly. The Yangtze River Delta has become one of the regions with the most dynamic economy, the highest degree of openness, the strongest ability of scientific and technological innovation, the most complete industrial system and the most convenient factor flow. Industrial agglomeration promotes the economic development of the Yangtze River Delta, but it also brings about environmental problems. In recent years, the contradiction between economic development and environmental protection in the Yangtze River Delta has become more and more prominent, and the development of various cities is uneven. How to unify the overall economic development and environmental benefits of the Yangtze River Delta is worth thinking deeply.

Firstly, based on the theoretical analysis of the impact of single industrial agglomeration and heterogeneous industrial collaborative agglomeration on the ecological efficiency of industrial agglomeration, this paper provides a theoretical basis for the analysis of its impact on the ecological efficiency, and measures the industrial agglomeration characteristics of 26 prefecture level cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2008 to 2018. Secondly, super efficiency SBM model is used to calculate and analyze the ecological efficiency of each city from 2008 to 2018. Finally, the spatial Durbin model is used to analyze the impact of industrial agglomeration on ecological efficiency, so as to provide corresponding theoretical reference for the high-quality development of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.

The results show that (1) the overall agglomeration level of manufacturing industry in the Yangtze River Delta region is on the rise, and the manufacturing industry has a trend of transferring from the east to the West; the overall level of knowledge intensive service industry is lower than that of manufacturing industry, and the agglomeration level of knowledge intensive service industry is on the decline, and the knowledge intensive service industry is gradually transferring to the economically developed regions . The collaborative agglomeration level of the two shows a downward trend, and the industrial development is unbalanced. (2) The average level of ecological efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta region showed a slight downward trend, and the ecological efficiency of each city was quite different. It can be seen that there were obvious differences between the East and the West. Secondly, the ecological efficiency level of the cities around Shanghai and Hangzhou was higher, and the ecological efficiency peak of the Yangtze River Delta region gradually shifted to Shanghai. (3) The agglomeration of manufacturing industry and the collaborative agglomeration of manufacturing industry and knowledge intensive service industry can improve the regional ecological efficiency, and the agglomeration of manufacturing industry has obvious positive spatial spillover effect. However, it is not obvious that the agglomeration of knowledge intensive service industry promotes the improvement of regional ecological efficiency. The level of science and technology can significantly improve the ecological efficiency, and has a significant positive spatial spillover effect, while the estimation of industrial structure and city size parameters is significantly negative, and has a significant negative spatial spillover effect. However, economic development and the level of opening to the outside world have no significant impact on ecological efficiency.