金融学院知识库

摘  要

   政府作为连接财政金融的重要载体，不仅在推动地区经济增长方面发挥重要作用，还在维护地方金融稳定方面有着举足轻重的地位。我国政府杠杆率从2008年到2020年的十二年时间，从原来的27.1%上升45.6%。地方政府杠杆率在2020年全年增长四个百分点，达到25.6%的水平。我国地方政府杠杆率虽未达到警戒值，但其增长速度过快的问题不容小觑。我国地方政府债务有着鲜明的历史特性，照搬国外经验盲目降低政府杠杆率，势必会对我国金融稳定发展造成影响。因此根据我国实际发展情况，判断和分析我国地方政府杠杆率与区域金融稳定协调平衡发展之间的关系，探求有效防范债务风险和金融风险的方法是十分重要的。本文在此背景下深入研究和分析我国地方政府杠杆率对金融稳定性的影响。

   首先，本文阐述了财政分权理论、财政预算软约束理论，从理论上归纳出地方政府债务和地方政府杠杆率积累和攀升的过程，并从金融加速器理论、金融不稳定假说理论出发，整理归纳我国地方政府债务与金融稳定之间的理论关系，为研究我国地方政府杠杆率与金融稳定之间的传导渠道提供理论基础。其次，结合我国经济发展现状和外部发展环境分析我国地方政府杠杆率现状，从地方政府融资平台、政府间风险传递、区域金融机构三个角度提出地方政府杠杆率影响金融稳定性的作用路径和传导机制，并基于机理分析提出研究假设。紧接着，本文收集31个省市自治区2015年到2019年的年度数据，借助固定效应模型实证分析探索了我国地方政府杠杆率对金融稳定性的影响。实证研究结果表明：地方政府杠杆率的提升会显著加大金融杠杆率波动率，即地方政府杠杆率越高，地区金融杠杆率波动幅度越大，金融越不稳定。最后，基于实证研究结果，本文从地方政府融资平台、中央和地方政府、地方金融机构三个角度提出对策建议：加快地方政府融资平台经营模式的转型，加强地方政府对平台类公司监督的同时敦促地方政府下放在融资平台投资项目中的决策权；优化地方政府债务结构，处理好地方政府与中央政府之间的关系，合理降低地方政府杠杆率，从根源上解决地方政府杠杆率的结构问题；厘清地方金融系统与地方财政之间的关系，防止债务风险与金融风险之间的相互转化，合理分散金融风险。

Abstract

     As an important carrier connecting finances, the government not only plays an important role in promoting regional economic growth, but also plays a pivotal role in maintaining local financial stability. In the twelve years from 2008 to 2020, the leverage ratio of the Chinese government has increased by 45.6% from the original 27.1%. The leverage ratio of local governments will increase by four percentage points throughout 2020, reaching a level of 25.6%. Although the leverage ratio of local governments in my country has not reached the warning value, the problem of its excessive growth rate should not be underestimated. my country's local government debt has distinctive historical characteristics, copying foreign experience and blindly reducing government leverage will inevitably have an impact on my country's financial stability and development. Therefore, it is very important to judge and analyze the relationship between my country's local government leverage ratio and the coordinated and balanced development of regional financial stability according to my country's actual development situation, and to explore effective methods to prevent debt risks and financial risks. In this context, this article deeply researches and analyzes the influence of my country's local government leverage ratio on financial stability.

      First of all, this article elaborates the theory of fiscal decentralization and soft budget constraint theory, theoretically summarizes the process of accumulation and rise of local government debt and local government leverage ratio, and starts from the theory of financial accelerator and the theory of financial instability hypothesis. The theoretical relationship between my country's local government debt and financial stability provides a theoretical basis for studying the transmission channel between my country's local government leverage ratio and financial stability. Secondly, it analyzes the current situation of China's local government leverage ratio in combination with the current economic development and external development environment in my country, and proposes the role and transmission of local government leverage ratio influencing financial stability from the three perspectives of local government financing platforms, intergovernmental risk transmission, and regional financial institutions. Mechanism, and put forward research hypotheses based on mechanism analysis. Next, this article collects annual data from 2015 to 2019 in 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, and explores the impact of my country's local government leverage ratio on financial stability with the help of empirical analysis of fixed effects models. Empirical research results show that the increase in local government leverage will significantly increase the volatility of financial leverage, that is, the higher the local government leverage, the greater the volatility of regional financial leverage and the more unstable the financial sector. Finally, based on the results of empirical research, this article proposes countermeasures and suggestions from three perspectives: local government financing platforms, central and local governments, and local financial institutions: speed up the transformation of local government financing platforms' business models, and strengthen local governments' supervision of platform companies while urging The local government delegates the decision-making power in financing platform investment projects; optimizes the local government debt structure, handles the relationship between the local government and the central government, reasonably reduces the local government leverage ratio, and solves the structural problem of the local government leverage ratio from the root; clarify the relationship between the local financial system and local finance, prevent the mutual transformation between debt risks and financial risks, and reasonably diversify financial risks.