统计与数据科学学院知识库

随着科技水平的进步和社会主义现代化建设的加快，“高铁经济”已经成为社会发展的一种新型的经济发展模式。近几年来，中国大力开展高铁建设，为加强国家区域经济之间的密切合作而努力。高铁的飞速发展可以大幅度的缩短出行时间，提高出行效率，给旅客带来舒适的乘车环境，并且具有速度快、运量大、班次密、准点率高的特点，给人们的出行带来了很大的方便。同时也会进一步加快技术、人力、资本的流动，而这些生产要素的流动会给地区经济发展、产业结构、就业水平、城市化进程等带来不同程度的影响。因此，探究高铁对区域经济发展的影响是一个具有现实意义的问题。

本文选取中原地区的30个城市为研究对象，搜集整理了从2006年至2019年间的相关经济变量的数据，并对部分数据进行对数化处理。首先，从空间的角度出发，运用空间相关性检验，判断城市之间是否存在空间相关性，且通过LM检验，选取空间滞后模型；其次，通过时间趋势图对样本进行平行趋势检验，判断是否可建立双重差分模型，然后，以2013年为时间节点，将2013年之前开通高铁的城市作为实验组，未开通高铁的城市作为控制组，再通过Logit模型进行倾向得分匹配，并对匹配后的样本进行平衡性检验。最后，构建空间DID模型，进行回归分析。

在实证部分主要从地区GDP、产业结构、就业水平、城市化进程四个方面进行具体的分析。本文主要得出以下结论：（1）对地区GDP的回归结果表明：开通高铁可以增加地区的GDP，促进该地区经济发展。在加入控制变量的过程中，其系数没有发生太大的变化，说明此DID模型具有良好的稳定性。另外，空间滞后项系数在0.05的显著性水平下也是显著的，说明将空间因素引入模型是合理的。开通高铁不仅会促进当地GDP总量的提升，也会促进周边城市的发展。从控制变量来看，政府财政支出、外商直接投资、固定资产投资的系数为正，对地区的GDP具有积极的促进作用。对外开放水平的系数为0.072，在0.1的显著性水平下不显著，但从经济意义上来看，对外开放水平对经济增长是有其积极意义。人力资本的系数为负值，说明人力资本对GDP的影响具有负效应。（2）对地区产业结构的回归结果表明：开通高铁会影响地区的产业结构，使一二三产业进行合理的调整分配，促进地区产业结构优化升级。从控制变量来看，进出口总额、外商直接投资、固定资产投资均对产业结构的调整有促进作用。而政府财政支出则对产业结构产生负面影响，人力资本对产业结构的影响不显著。（3）对地区就业水平的回归结果表明：开通高铁，可以提供更多的工作岗位和就业机会，提升城市的就业水平。从控制变量来看，对外开放水平、外商直接投资、固定资产投资和人力资本均对城市的就业水平有促进作用。（4）从地区城市化进程的回归结果表明：在没有添加任何控制变量的回归模型中，高铁对中原地区经济的影响在0.1的水平上显著为正；在模型中依次加入控制变量，高铁因素的影响系数有逐渐增大的趋势，表明开通高铁可以促进人才资源的流动，加强基础设施建设，推动城市化进程。

With the vigorous development of science and technology and the acceleration of socialist modernization ,“ high-speed rail economy”has become a new development mode of modern economic development. In recent years, China has vigorously carried out high-speed rail construction to strengthen close cooperation between the national and regional economies. The rapid development of high-speed rail can greatly shorten travel time, improve travel efficiency, bring comfortable ride environment to passengers, and has the characteristics of fast speed, large volume, dense frequency and high punctuality rate, which brings great convenience to people's travel. At the same time, it will further accelerate the flow of technology, manpower and capital, and the flow of these factors of production will bring different degrees of influence to the regional economic development, industrial structure, employment level, urbanization process and so on. Therefore, it is of practical significance to explore the impact of high-speed rail on regional economic development.

In this paper ,30 cities in the Central Plains are selected as the research objects, and the data of relevant economic variables from 2006 to 2019 are collected and collated, and some of the data are logarithmic. Firstly, from the point of view of space, the spatial correlation test is used to judge whether there is spatial correlation between cities, and the spatial lag model is selected by LM test. Secondly, the double difference model can be established by parallel trend test. Finally, the spatial DID model is constructed and regression analysis is carried out.

Empirical part mainly from the region GDP、 industrial structure, employment level, urbanization process four aspects of specific analysis. The following conclusions are drawn：(1) The results of the return to regional GDP show that the opening of high-speed rail can increase the GDP, of the region and promote the economic development of the region. During the process of adding control variables, the coefficient does not change much, which indicates that the DID model has good stability. In addition, the spatial lag coefficient is also significant at the significant level of 0.05, which indicates that it is reasonable to introduce spatial factors into the model. High-speed rail will not only promote the total amount of local GDP, but also promote the development of surrounding cities. From the control variables, the coefficient of government expenditure, foreign direct investment and fixed assets investment is positive, which has a positive role in promoting regional GDP. The coefficient of opening to the outside world is 0.072, which is not significant at the significant level of 0.1, but in the economic sense, the level of opening to the outside world has its positive significance to economic growth. Human capital coefficient is negative, indicating that human capital has negative effect on GDP.(2) The results of the return to the regional industrial structure show that the opening of high-speed rail will affect the industrial structure of the region, make the first, second and third industries adjust and distribute reasonably, and promote the optimization and upgrading of the regional industrial structure. From the control variables, the total import and export, foreign direct investment, fixed assets investment can promote the adjustment of industrial structure. The government expenditure has a negative impact on the industrial structure, and the impact of human capital on the industrial structure is not significant. (3) The results of the return to the regional employment level show that the opening of high-speed rail can provide more jobs and employment opportunities and improve the employment level in cities. From the control variables, the level of opening to the outside world, foreign direct investment, fixed assets investment and human capital all promote the employment level of cities.(4) The the regression results of the urbanization process in the region, of high-speed rail on the economy of the Central Plains is significantly positive at the level of 0.1 in the regression model without adding any control variables. The control variables are added to the model in turn, and the influence coefficient of high-speed rail factors is gradually increasing, which indicates that the opening of high-speed rail can promote the flow of human resources, strengthen infrastructure construction and promote the process of urbanization.