金融学院知识库

  各个国家对宏观经济进行调节控制时其主要手段为货币政策，而传导渠道是否畅通，传导效率是否高效成为衡量货币政策效果的重要因素。利率作为货币政策的中介指标，其市场化程度影响着货币政策工具的选择及货币政策的传导。2013年LPR的出台使我国货币政策操作方式从数量型调控向价格型调控转变，然而货币政策的利率传导效果并不理想。针对此问题，中国人民银行于2019年8月对LPR进行了改革，LPR改革是否达到了预想效果？LPR的出台和改革对我国货币政策利率的传导渠道和传导效率究竟产生了哪些影响？如何进一步推动利率市场化？基于此，本文以LPR出台和改革为背景分析其对货币政策传导渠道和效率的影响，并提出推进利率市场化及提高传导效率的建议。

  首先，本文阐述了西方利率传导机制理论，归纳出以维克赛尔的累积过程理论为起点的各个利率传导机制理论（例如：凯恩斯理论、IS-LM模型等），为研究我国货币政策利率传导渠道提供理论基础；其次，本文针对LPR出台前后和改革前后我国货币政策的利率传导渠道进行整理，归纳出其传导渠道的不同之处，通过整理发现：LPR出台前我国货币政策利率传导渠道为贷款基准利率影响贷款利率，出台后传导渠道是贷款基准利率和LPR均影响贷款利率，但贷款基准利率是影响贷款利率的主因，2019年LPR改革后货币政策利率传导渠道更为MLF利率成为LPR的利率锚对商业银行贷款利率产生影响；最后本文使用时间序列数据和微观面板数据进行实证分析，以此来验证本文提出的研究假说。

   实证部分本文从宏观和微观两个层面研究LPR出台前后与改革前后我国货币政策传导渠道和传导效率的变化。一方面，本文利用时间序列数据进行宏观分析，通过VAR滞后期选择、单位根检验、格兰杰因果检验等方法验证不同时期我国货币政策利率传导渠道的不同；另一方面，本文通过分银行的面板数据进行微观层面分析，通过PSM-DID法对政策利率传导效率进行静态和动态分析，结果显示LPR出台后和改革后其传导效率均有所提高，且改革后的效率高于LPR出台后的效率。最后，本文对提高传导效率提出将LPR作为贷款利率定价的基准以及加强LPR与市场利率的关联度等建议。

    The policy of currency is the way that concentrites on macro economy,its conductive way whether smooth and the conductive effect whether well influences directly the result of monetary policy.As the medium target of the policy of currency,the interest rate level of market affects the policy of currency.In October 2013,LPR entered,which change our operation mode of the policy of currency——from amout type to price type.But our effect of policy of currency is not well.To solve this problem, in August 2019,our coutry reform LPR.But after the LPR reform, the result whether well,the conductive way and productivity of current policy whether alter after 2013 and 2019,and how to quicken the market-oriented interest rate is all the problem.Based on this, this article with introduction and reform of LPR as the background to study LPR’s effect to conduction efficiency and way.Moreover,we suggest the proposal in order to offer advice.

    Firstly,we state the western interest rate conduction mechanism theory and induce various interest rate conduction mechanism theories (such as Keynes theory, IS-LM model, etc.) starting from Wicksell's accumulation process theory, which provides a theoretical base for the study of China's monetary policy; secondly, we follow China's monetary policy before and after the introduction of LPR and before and after the reform Through sorting out the transmission ways of the rate, we find that: before the introduction of LPR, the conduction way of interest rate is the benchmark loan interest rate which affects the loan interest rate; after the introduction of the LPR, the transmission channel becomes the benchmark loan interest rate and LPR influencing the loan interest rate.But the principal section is benchmark loan interest rate.After the LPR reform in 2019, the rate conduction way is MLF and it becomes the base of LPR. Finally, we use time series data and micro panel data to verify the research hypothesis.

    In the empirical part, we study the conduction way before and after the introduction of LPR and before and after the reform. On the one hand, we use time series data for macro level analysis,and find the diverse way of transmission methods by unit root test, lag selection and so on; on the other hand, we uses panel data of sub banks to conduct micro level analysis about the conduction result of monetary policy by the method of PSM-DID,the article demonstrate that the conductive function has been improved after the introduction of LPR and after the reform, and the efficiency after the reform is higher than that after the introduction of LPR.In the end,we suggest advice on transmission result.For example,let LPR become reference in loan interest rate,or strengthen the connection of LPR and market’s interest rate.