统计与数据科学学院知识库

“双循环”新发展格局为制造业高质量发展提供了机遇，使新一轮全球化更多地体现为基于内需的全球化，利用内需连接国内市场和国际市场，需要我国尽早实现核心技术的内循环能力。然而，目前中国制造业的技术水平和世界先进水平之间仍存在较大的差距，中国要实现制造业由“大”向“强”的转变，就要通过与世界制造业强国进行比较分析，进而发现我国制造业面临的问题。中国制造强国论坛每年发布的中国制造强国指数将世界制造业强国分为四大阵营，美国是唯一一个处于第一大阵营的国家，它是全球技术创新中心，而中国则处于第三阵营里的首位，因此展开对中美制造业技术差距的研究，将会有利于中国制造业乃至整个国民经济的发展。

本文首先在对技术进步以及技术差距相关文献进行梳理的基础上，找出中美制造业技术差距产生的内在原因及经验分析的理论基础；其次，在深入对比中美两国经济总量、结构及竞争力现状基础上，进一步展开了中美制造业细分行业的技术差距的测算；最后选择GTAP模型，运用最新的GTAP10.0数据库数据对中美制造业技术差距变化的经济效应进行了深入分析，讨论制造业技术差距变化对中美两国的GDP、社会福利和贸易条件的影响，以及对中美两国制造业细分行业产出和进出口变动的影响。为推动中国制造业结构优化升级，提升国际竞争力，进而为中国未来的经济发展提供经验基础和决策依据。

The new development pattern of "double circulation" provides opportunities for the high-quality development of manufacturing industry, which makes the new round of globalization more embodied in the globalization based on domestic demand. Using domestic demand to connect domestic market and international market requires China to realize the internal circulation ability of core technology as soon as possible. However, there is still a big gap between the technological level of China's manufacturing industry and the world's advanced level. In order to realize the transformation of China's manufacturing industry from "big" to "strong", we should make a comparative analysis with the world's manufacturing powers, and then find out the problems faced by China's manufacturing industry. The manufacturing power index of China released by the manufacturing Power Forum every year divides the world's manufacturing powers into four camps. The United States is the only country in the first camp, which is the global technological innovation center, while China is the first in the third camp. Therefore, this paper studies the technology gap between China and the United States, It will be beneficial to the development of China's manufacturing industry and even the whole national economy.

Firstly, based on the literature review of technology progress and technology gap, this paper finds out the internal causes of technology gap between China and the United States and the theoretical basis of empirical analysis; Secondly, based on the in-depth comparison of the total economic volume, structure and competitiveness of China and the United States, this paper further calculates the technology gap between the manufacturing industry segments of China and the United States; Finally, this paper selects GTAP model and uses the latest gtap10.0 database data to analyze the economic effect of the change of manufacturing technology gap between China and the United States. It discusses the impact of the change of manufacturing technology gap on GDP, social welfare and terms of trade between China and the United States, as well as the impact on the output and import and export changes of manufacturing industry segments in China and the United States. In order to promote the optimization and upgrading of China's manufacturing structure, enhance international competitiveness, and then provide experience basis and decision-making basis for China's future economic development.