统计与数据科学学院知识库

居民消费者价格指数（CPI）是中国反映物价总体水平的重要指标，物价与人民生活息息相关，维持 CPI 在合理区间内波动是中央银行实施经济政策的重要目标之一。相关研究表明， CPI与相关价格指数如猪肉价格、PPI等具有某种相关关系，本文的研究目的在于对我国相关价格变动影响CPI展开全面分析与研究，探究我国CPI变动的原因，以此作为应对价格上涨与变动的有效基础，使政府能够监测和预警我国物价总水平的变动，以便更好地应对宏观经济波动，将CPI维持在合理的区间。

本文选取2000年1月-2020年8月PPI、猪肉价格、核心CPI、CPI的月度同比数据。结合频域分析方法中的小波分析方法和谱分析方法具有不损失变量信息的优点，在高频数据处理上具有其他方法无法比拟的优势，利用互谱分析和小波变换从时域和频域两个角度对比分析CPI与相关价格指数之间的关联性，研究我国CPI与食品类中变动最大的猪肉价格、扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI、工业生产者价格指数PPI以及核心CPI和猪肉价格之间周期波动的关联性。

主要结论如下：猪肉价格、CPI、核心CPI、PPI主周期波动基本一致。周期41.7个月的波动是显著影响猪肉价格和居民消费价格指数波动周期的主导力量，猪肉价格波动领先CPI波动将近10个月；二者长周期波动相关性较高，长周期波动猪肉价格先行于CPI，猪肉价格是CPI的Granger因。核心CPI与猪肉价格相关性较低。CPI与核心CPI之间相关性全周期来看都很高，CPI领先于核心CPI波动，CPI是核心CPI的Granger因。从长期来看，周期为14.1个月的波动是影响CPI和PPI周期波动的主导力量，二者的相关性很高，CPI波动先行，中短周期波动相关性较低；CPI和PPI互为Granger因果关系。

Consumer Price Index（CPI）is an important indicator reflecting the overall price level in China. Prices are closely related to people's lives. To keep CPI fluctuating within a reasonable range is one of the important goals of the central bank in implementing economic policies. Related studies have shown that the CPI and the related price index such as pork prices and producer prices have a certain relationship, the purpose of this study was to relative price changes affect the CPI in China launched a comprehensive analysis and study, probing into the cause of the changes in the CPI in China, as a response to rising prices and the change of effective basis, enable the government to monitoring and early warning and the changes in the overall price level in our country, in order to better cope with the macroeconomic fluctuation, the CPI remains within a reasonable range.

This paper selects the monthly year-on-year data of PPI, pork price, core CPI and CPI from January 2000 to August 2020.Combined with the wavelet analysis method in the frequency domain analysis method and the spectral analysis method has the advantages of no loss of variable information on high frequency data processing has incomparable advantage over other methods, using the cross spectrum analysis and wavelet transform from two angles of time domain and frequency domain analysis correlation between CPI and the related price index, study changes in the CPI and food in our country's biggest pork prices, core consumer prices excluding food and energy prices, producer price index（PPI）for industrial core CPI and PPI and pork price cycle correlation between.

The main conclusions are as follows: the main cycle fluctuations of pork price, CPI, core CPI and PPI are basically the same. The fluctuation of pork price with a period of 41.7 months was the dominant force that significantly affected the fluctuation cycle of pork price and consumer price index, and the fluctuation of pork price was nearly 10 months ahead of the fluctuation of CPI. There is a high correlation between the two long-term cycle fluctuations. Pork price precedes CPI in long-term cycle fluctuations, and pork price is the Granger cause of CPI. Core CPI has a low correlation with pork prices. The correlaton between CPI and core CPI is very high in the whole cycle. CPI is ahead of the fluctuation of core CPI, and CPI is the Granger cause of core CPI. In the long run, the fluctuation with a period of 14.1 months is the dominant force affecting the cyclical fluctuations of CPI and PPI, and the correlation between the two is very high. CPI fluctuations come first, and the correlation between medium and short cycle fluctuations is low.CPI and PPI are Granger causality to each other.