统计与数据科学学院知识库

摘 要

2019年是战胜脱贫攻坚战的关键一年，随着全国人口的大面积脱贫，依旧存在大量返贫的现象，因此金融扶贫成为现阶段实现精准扶贫并迈向乡村振兴的最直接有效途径。但是一般接受金融扶贫的贫困人口家庭收入不稳定，还款能力弱，信贷风险很高，加之金融机构本质的趋利性，使得金融扶贫成本大，风险高，金融歧视仍然存在，扶贫难度增大。为了让社会各个阶层都能享受一样的金融权利，特别是针对弱势群体，普惠金融成为打破金融歧视，实现弱势群体享受同等金融服务权利的必要方式。

本文首先采用描述统计对我国金融基本发展现状进行描述，再对我国31个省市2018年普惠金融14个指标进行指数测算，得到31个省市普惠金融综合发展指数，得到我国普惠金融发展综合水平不高，且各地区发展很不均匀，上海市和北京市等东部地区省市发展遥遥领先，西部地区省市发展指数均不超过0.2，可见我国发达地区普惠金融发展更好，偏离普惠金融初衷，存在对象偏移问题。

为进一步分析普惠金融对贫困减缓和经济发展的作用，本文采用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS2015)微观数据，使用模型估计我国农村家庭贫困程度和收入水平，来表示农村家庭可获得贷款的概率，进而用该变量和农村贫困人口、农户家庭恩格尔系数、农户村庄基尼系数和村庄生产总值进行断点回归分析。得到普惠金融的发展能显著减少我国农村贫困人口、降低农户家庭恩格尔系数，有效减少贫富差距助推经济增长，并且具有显著的区域差异性，普惠金融的发展对全国和中部地区有显著的减贫增收效应，而在东西两地作用不明显或抑制贫困的减少。我们知道我国从东到西的经济发展是递减的，由此可见普惠金融的减贫效应是随着地区经济的发展呈“倒U型”的。

后面，在实证分析得出结论的基础上，从金融机构和政府机构两个角度得到一些启示总结，为使我国农村真正摆脱贫困，也为后面脱贫攻坚到乡村振兴的完美过度提供一些参考建议，更为我国脱贫攻坚事业贡献自己的微薄力量。

关键词：普惠金融 模糊断点回归 模型 脱贫攻坚

Abstract

2019 is a key year to overcome the battle of poverty alleviation. With the large area of the national population out of poverty, there is still a large number of phenomenon of returning to poverty. Therefore, financial poverty alleviation has become the most direct and effective way to achieve targeted poverty alleviation and achieve rural revitalization at this stage. However, the poor people who generally accept financial poverty alleviation have unstable family income, weak repayment ability and high credit risk. In addition, the profit-oriented nature of financial institutions makes financial poverty alleviation cost high and risk high, financial discrimination still exists, and poverty alleviation difficulty increases. In order to enable all social classes to enjoy the same financial rights, especially for vulnerable groups, inclusive finance has become a necessary way to break the financial discrimination and realize that vulnerable groups enjoy the same rights to financial services.

This paper first uses descriptive statistics to describe the basic development status of China's finance, and then calculates the 14 indicators of inclusive finance in 31 provinces and cities in 2018, and obtains the comprehensive development index of inclusive finance in 31 provinces and cities. The comprehensive development level of inclusive finance in China is not high, and the development of each region is uneven. The eastern provinces and cities such as Shanghai and Beijing are far ahead in development, while the development index of the western provinces and cities is no more than 0.2. It can be seen that the development of inclusive finance in the developed regions of China is better, which deviates from the original intention of inclusive finance and has the problem of object deviation.

In order to further analyze the role of Inclusive Finance Development in poverty alleviation and economic development, this paper uses the micro data of China Family Finance Survey (chfs2015) and Probit Model to estimate the loan probability that determines the family loan behavior, namely the driving variable, and then analyzes the relationship between the driving variable and the rural poor, the Engel's coefficient of rural households, Gini coefficient of rural households and rural GDP used breakpoint analysis. The development of Inclusive Finance can markedly decrease the poor population in rural areas, decrease the Engel coefficient of rural households, close the gap between the rich and the poor, and boost economic development. In different regions, the evolution of Inclusive Finance has a major effect on poverty decrease and generate income in the whole country and the central region, but not in the East and the West. We know that the economic development in the eastern, central and western regions of China is in a decreasing state. The economic development in the eastern region is the best, followed by the central region, and the western region is backward and slow. It can be seen that the role of Inclusive Finance in reducing poverty is "inverted u" with the economic development.

In the end, based on the conclusions of empirical analysis, some enlightenment and summary are obtained from the perspectives of financial institutions and government agencies, so as to make China's rural areas really get rid of poverty, and also provide some reference suggestions for the perfect transition from poverty alleviation to rural revitalization, so as to contribute my modest strength to the cause of poverty alleviation in China.

Keywords: Inclusive finance；Fuzzy breakpoint regression；Probit model； Poverty alleviation