国际经济与贸易学院知识库

本文分别从理论和实证方面入手，深入探究江苏省对外贸易对制造业产业结构优化升级的具体作用，为其经济进一步协调发展提供研究基础。本文在理论和作用机理研究的基础上，分析江苏省对外贸易以及制造业产业结构发展状况，并采用产业结构合理化和高度化指标来表征制造业产业结构优化升级状况，借助stata软件对相关指标进行协整分析和脉冲响应分析，分别进行江苏省进口贸易和出口贸易与制造业产业结构高度化和合理化之间静态和动态作用关系的实证研究。

研究发现显著的静态和动态关系存在于江苏省对外贸易和制造业产业结构之间。从长期静态角度看：第一，江苏省出口贸易会正向促进制造业产业结构合理化水平的发展；第二，江苏省出口贸易会抑制制造业产业结构高度化水平的发展，且出口贸易对产业结构合理化的正向促进作用程度小于其对产业结构高度化的抑制作用程度；第三，江苏省进口贸易会正向促进制造业产业结构合理化水平和高度化水平的发展，且进口贸易对产业结构合理化的正向促进作用程度大于进口贸易对产业结构高度化的正向促进作用程度。从动态角度看，江苏省进口和出口贸易均对制造业产业结构高度化和产业结构合理化发展具有正向促进作用。

关键词：产业结构高度化 产业结构合理化 出口贸易 进口贸易

Starting from theoretical and empirical aspects, this paper deeply explores the specific role of Jiangsu Province’s foreign trade in the optimization and upgrading of the manufacturing industry structure, and provides a research basis for its further coordinated economic development. This paper analyzes the development status of foreign trade and manufacturing industry structure in Jiangsu Province on the basis of theory and mechanism research, and adopts industrial structure rationalization and advanced indicators to characterize the optimization and upgrading status of manufacturing industry structure, and uses Stata software to perform related indicators. Co-integration analysis and impulse response analysis respectively carry out empirical research on the static and dynamic relationship between Jiangsu Province’s import trade and export trade and the high-level and rationalization of the manufacturing industry structure.

The study found that a significant static and dynamic relationship exists between Jiangsu's foreign trade and manufacturing industry structure. From a long-term static perspective: First, Jiangsu export trade will promote the development of the manufacturing industry structure to a higher level of rationalization; second, Jiangsu export trade will inhibit the development of the manufacturing industry structure to a higher level, and the degree of positive promotion to the rationalization of the industrial structure is greater than the degree of restraint to the advancement of the industrial structure; Third, the import trade in Jiangsu Province will promote the development of a more rationalized and advanced manufacturing industry structure, and the degree of positive promotion of import trade to the rationalization of industrial structure is greater than the degree of positive promotion of import trade to the advancement of industrial structure. From a dynamic point of view, both import and export trade in Jiangsu Province have a positive role in promoting the development of higher manufacturing industry structure and rationalization of the industrial structure.

Keywords：Industrial structure supererogation；Rationalization of industrial structure；Import trade；Export trade