国际经济与贸易学院知识库

       2019 年 9 月 18 日, 习近平总书记在黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展座谈会上明确指出:“黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展, 同京津冀协同发展、长江经济带发展、粤港澳大湾区建设、长三角一体化发展一样, 是重大国家战略。”重点关注黄河流域，推动其经济持续、健康、绿色发展是我国当前经济发展的重中之重。但目前黄河流域经济发展滞后、水土流失严重、生态环境脆弱等各种因素制约着黄河流域的经济发展，此外黄河上中下游地区经济发展不平衡也导致了地区间高质量发展水平存在差异性。而生产性服务业作为一种相对绿色、环保的产业，其通过集聚模式产生的知识溢出效应、规模效应等可以通过促进区域进行绿色创新，形成知识等要素的共享，从而促进黄河流域各地区均衡发展，从整体上提升高质量发展水平。
       基于黄河流域各省区之间高质量发展水平存在差异，本文将从生产性服务业集聚角度出发，按照不同的集聚模式对黄河流域各省区的高质量发展水平的影响进行研究。首先，通过构建专业化集聚指数和多样化集聚指数，测算黄河流域生产性服务业集聚度并进行分析；其次基于五大发展理念选取 13 个二级指标、20 个基础指标通过熵权法计算黄河流域九省区的高质量发展指数，从空间和时间维度进行评价分析；最后分别将生产性服务业专业化集聚和多样化集聚与黄河流域经济的高质量发展结合起来进行单解释变量研究，找出促进或制约黄河流域发展的因素，之后再通过双解释变量回归进行验证。
       由实证结果可知，第一，黄河流域上游地区专业化集聚程度最高，其次是中游地区，下游地区专业化集聚程度则最低，但是下游地区多样化集聚程度最高，其次是上游地区，最后是中游地区，这主要是由于产业转移造成的；第二，从空间维度来看，山东省的高质量发展水平一直处于最高位，而甘肃则处于最末位，造成这种现象出现的原因是山东的经济相较于其他省区较为发达，而甘肃省则一直处于全国倒数位置，除山东、陕西、四川外，其他省份高质量发展水平均低于平均水平；从时间维度来看，黄河上游省份除青海省外都呈现先上升后下降的趋势，中下游地区的山东省和陕西省也呈现先上升后下降的趋势，其余省份则一直处于上升趋势。第三，无论是单解释变量回归还是双解释变量回归，黄河流域生产性服务业两种集聚模式都能够促进经济高质量发展，且专业化集聚对黄河流域的影响要比多样化集聚更大。

    On September 18, 2019, General Secretary Xi Jinping clearly pointed out at the symposium on ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin: "The ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin, coordinated development with Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the construction of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and the Yangtze River Delta. Like the integrated development, it is a major national strategy." Paying close attention to the Yellow River Basin and promoting its sustained, healthy and green economic development is the top priority of China's current economic development. However, at present, the economic development of the Yellow River Basin is restricted by various factors, such as lagging economic development, serious soil erosion and fragile ecological environment. In addition, the imbalance of economic development in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River also leads to differences in high-quality development level among regions. As a relatively green and environment-friendly industry, the knowledge spillover effect and scale effect of producer services can promote regional green innovation and form the sharing of knowledge and other elements, thus promoting the balanced development of all regions in the Yellow River Basin and improving the overall high-quality development level.

    Based on the differences of high-quality development level among provinces in the Yellow River Basin, this paper will study the high-quality development level of provinces in the Yellow River Basin from the perspective of producer services agglomeration. Firstly, the agglomeration degree of producer services in the Yellow River Basin is calculated and analyzed by constructing specialized agglomeration and diversified agglomeration indicators; Secondly, based on the five development concepts, 13 secondary indicators and 20 basic indicators are selected to calculate the high-quality development index of nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin by entropy weight method, and the evaluation and analysis are carried out from the spatial and temporal dimensions; Finally, the relationship between specialized agglomeration and diversified agglomeration of producer services and high-quality economic development in the Yellow River Basin is empirically analyzed with single explanatory variable and double explanatory variable respectively.

    The empirical results show that, firstly, the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin have the highest degree of specialized agglomeration, followed by the middle reaches, while the lower reaches have the lowest degree of specialized agglomeration, while the lower reaches have the highest degree of diversified agglomeration, followed by the upper reaches and finally the middle reaches. Second, from the perspective of spatial dimension, the high-quality development level of Shandong Province has always been at the highest level, while Gansu is at the bottom. Except Shandong, Shaanxi and Sichuan, the high-quality development level of other provinces is lower than the average level; From the time dimension, the provinces in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, except Qinghai Province, showed a trend of rising first and then falling, while Shandong Province and Shaanxi Province in the middle and lower reaches also showed a trend of rising first and then falling, while other provinces were always on the rise. Third, whether it is a single explanatory variable regression or a double explanatory variable regression, the two agglomeration modes of producer services in the Yellow River Basin can promote high-quality economic development, and specialized agglomeration plays a greater role than diversified agglomeration.