国际经济与贸易学院知识库

  农业发展的问题关乎国家整体发展也是关系到国家粮食安全、人民生活安定的根本性问题，在实现现代化农业农村的发展同时，才能实现国家的现代化发展。十九大报告提出，全面提升农业全要素生产率才能实现农业现代化，因此本文以此为导向，以甘肃省及各地州市为研究对象，选取2010-2018年农业生产发展相关数据，采用DEA-Malmquist指数法和两阶段最小二乘法对甘肃省14个地市州的农业全要素生产率进行测算并分析其影响因素。

  首先，本文通过比较甘肃省农业生产中投入与产出随时间产生的变化和单要素生产率变动情况，研究发现：省内农业投入、产出以及生产率逐渐上升，生产率的增长动力主要来自于现代生产要素投入的增加，而非传统生产要素的增加；对于不同的地区来说，各地区农业发展差异较大，各地州市的农业生产率呈现一定区域性趋同的特征。其次，比较各年间地市州及甘肃省农业全要素生产率变化发现：甘肃省农业全要素生产率逐年有效提升，技术效率整体上出现小幅度的下降，技术进步整体呈上升趋势，农业全要素生产率增长的主要动力来自于技术进步；对于同一地区的各个地州市，农业全要素生产率的增长变化出现趋同；同时，各地区农业全要素生产率随着时间推移而增长。最后，在选取不同影响因素以及解决可能存在的内生性问题的基础上使用两阶段最小二乘法进行实证研究发现：农业产业结构优化及劳动力的增长可以改善技术效率，农业产业结构的优化、财政支农比和有效灌溉率的提升、地区金融发展能够促进技术进步的发生，农业产业结构的优化、劳动力投入的增长、财政支农比和有效灌溉率的提升、地区金融发展能够有效改善全要素生产率的提升。

       Issues of agriculture, farmer and rural area is a fundamental issue according to China's economy and living standard. Only by realizing the development of modern agriculture and rural areas can the whole country realize the modernization development. The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China points out that in order to realize the modernization of agriculture, it is necessary to improve the total factor productivity of agriculture. Therefore, this paper selects the relevant data of agricultural production development in various cities of Gansu Province from 2010 to 2018, calculates and analyzes the development status and influencing factors of agricultural total factor productivity in Gansu Province, and uses DEA Malmquist index method and two-stage least square method to analyze the 14 cities and prefectures of Gansu Province This paper calculates the agricultural total factor productivity of prefectures, cities and states, and analyzes its influencing factors.

         The results show that, first of all, through the comparison of agricultural input-output and single factor productivity in Gansu Province, it is found that the overall agricultural input and output and agricultural productivity in Gansu Province are increasing year by year, but the growth source of agricultural productivity is mainly the increase of modern production factor input; and different regions have different development trend,different cities in the same region have the same trend of agricultural productivity.Secondly, by calculating and comparing the total factor productivity of agriculture in Gansu Province and other prefectures and cities,according to the research,the total factor productivity of agriculture in Gansu Province is increasing,the technical efficiency is decline as the whole, and the technical advancement is increasing, in which the technical advancement is the important factor of total factor productivity; the total factor productivity of agriculture in all prefectures and cities has an upward trend Moreover, the agricultural TFP of cities and states in the same region tends to be the same. Finally, by studying the influencing factors of agricultural total factor productivity in Gansu Province, it is found that the better agricultural industrial structure can promote the technical efficiency,the improvement of financial support to agriculture ratio and effective irrigation rate,the development of Regional Finance can promote the technological progress,the improvement of financial support to agriculture and the irrigation rate can improve the total factor productivity.