统计与数据科学学院知识库

投资作为企业资金积累的来源和企业成长的动力，是企业最重要的财务活动之一，高效率的投资行为可以通过对企业资金的合理运用,实现企业价值最大化的中短期目标，还能实现优化社会资源配置的长期目标。然而，现实中却存在诸多影响企业投资决策的内、外部因素，引发了投资过度和投资不足等不经济行为，严重制约了企业乃至社会经济的发展。行为金融学研究表明，管理者的心理因素尤其是过度自信心理是导致企业投资异化的关键因素之一，因此从非理性因素视角探讨如何提高公司投资效率问题具有理论与现实上的双重意义。由于公司会计信息质量的高低也会直接影响到企业的投资效率，而管理层主要通过盈余管理调整公司的财务数据，所以综合考虑管理者过度自信与盈余管理行为可以为提高公司投资效率提供新的研究视角。

梳理现有国内外相关文献可知，鲜有学者将管理者过度自信、盈余管理与非效率投资纳入同一分析框架进行研究，且从有限理性角度出发研究管理者过度自信通过何种渠道影响非效率投资的文献也是寥寥无几。基于以上不足，本文选取2010-2019年沪深A股上市制造业企业作为研究样本，在信息不对称、委托代理和行为金融学理论的基础上分析三者间的作用机理，并据此提出研究假设。首先，在变量设计部分，管理者过度自信指标用管理者薪酬法衡量，盈余管理指标用修正的Jones模型衡量，非效率投资指标用Richardson模型衡量。其次，通过建立回归模型实证检验管理者过度自信对盈余管理和非效率投资的促进作用，并验证了盈余管理在管理者过度自信对非效率投资的影响中发挥部分中介作用，得出如下结论：（1）管理者过度自信会引起企业非效率投资。（2）管理者过度自信与盈余管理正相关。（3）盈余管理程度与非效率投资正相关。（4）盈余管理在管理者过度自信对非效率投资的影响中发挥部分中介效应。最后，本文根据研究结论提出改进公司投资效率的政策建议，帮助企业解决经营发展中切实存在的问题。

Investment is one of the most important financial activities of an enterprise as the source of enterprise funds accumulation and the driving force of growth. High-efficiency investment behavior can achieve the short-term and medium-term goal of maximizing enterprise value through the rational use of enterprise funds. The long-term goal of optimizing the allocation of social resources. However, in reality, there are many internal and external factors that affect the investment decision-making of enterprises, causing uneconomic behaviors such as over-investment and under-investment, and seriously restricting the development of enterprises and even the social economy. Behavioral finance studies have shown that managers’ psychological factors, especially overconfidence, are one of the key factors leading to the alienation of corporate investment. Therefore, exploring how to improve corporate investment efficiency from the perspective of irrational factors has both theoretical and practical significance. Since the quality of the company’s accounting information will also directly affect the company’s investment efficiency, and the management mainly adjusts the company’s financial data through earnings management, a comprehensive consideration of managers’ overconfidence and earnings management behavior can provide a new research perspective to improve the company’s investment efficiency.

A review of the existing domestic and foreign related literature shows that few scholars put manager overconfidence, earnings management and inefficient investment into the same analysis framework for research, and from the perspective of bounded rationality, study the channels through which manager overconfidence affects inefficient investment is also very few. Based on the above deficiencies, this article selects the 2010-2019 Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed manufacturing companies as the research sample, analyzes the mechanism of action among the three on the basis of information asymmetry, principal-agent and behavioral finance theories, and proposes research hypothesis accordingly. First, in the variable design part, the manager’s overconfidence index is measured by the manager compensation method, the earnings management index is measured by the modified Jones model, and the inefficiency investment index is measured by the Richardson model. Secondly, by establishing a regression model to empirically test the role of managers’ overconfidence in promoting earnings management and inefficient investment, and verify that earnings management plays a part of the mediating role in the impact of managers’ overconfidence on inefficient investment, and draw the following conclusions: (1) Managers’ overconfidence can cause inefficient investment of enterprises. (2) Managers’ overconfidence is positively correlated with earnings management. (3) The degree of earnings management is positively correlated with inefficient investment. (4) Earnings management plays a part of the mediating effect in the influence of managers’ overconfidence on inefficient investment. Finally, this article puts forward policy recommendations to improve the company’s investment efficiency based on the research conclusions, and helps companies solve practical problems in business development.