作者 | 郭佳斌 |
姓名汉语拼音 | Guo Jiabin |
学号 | 2018000008253 |
培养单位 | 兰州财经大学 |
电话 | 18809466930 |
电子邮件 | 1829906537@qq.com |
入学年份 | 2018-9 |
学位类别 | 专业硕士 |
培养级别 | 硕士研究生 |
一级学科名称 | 会计 |
学科代码 | 1253 |
授予学位 | 硕士 |
第一导师姓名 | 张鲜华 |
第一导师姓名汉语拼音 | Zhang Xianhua |
第一导师单位 | 兰州财经大学 |
第一导师职称 | 副教授 |
第二导师姓名 | 巨强 |
第二导师姓名汉语拼音 | Ju Qiang |
第二导师单位 | 华亭煤业集团有限责任公司 |
第二导师职称 | 高级会计师 |
题名 | 基于时间序列分析的奥飞娱乐盈利质量研究 |
英文题名 | Research on the Earnings Quality of Alpha Based on Time Series Analysis |
关键词 | 时间序列分析 盈利质量 动漫企业 奥飞娱乐 |
外文关键词 | Time series analysis ; Animation enterprises ; Earnings quality ; Alpha |
摘要 | 动漫产业,被誉为21世纪最具创意的朝阳产业。在经历了一段快速增长期后,我国动漫产业上市公司近年来的盈利表现并不理想,与市场厚望之间形成了强烈反差。在此背景下,采用科学合理的分析方法,对动漫企业的盈利质量进行综合评价,有助于企业及时调整生产经营活动,保证高质量的盈利。 本文在梳理盈利质量概念及其特征的基础上,结合动漫行业的特点与发展现状,参考中外学者们现有研究成果,从盈利质量的盈利性、收现性、持续性、结构性和风险性等5个维度,选取了21个二级指标,构建了适用于动漫行业的盈利质量指标评价体系。随后,选取动漫行业的“中国动漫第一股”奥飞娱乐作为样本企业,基于其2015-2019年间的财务数据构建出时间序列,通过主成分分析法对其盈利质量进行分析与评价。 结果表明,奥飞娱乐在面临现有IP产品无法升值和保值的情况下,投入了巨额资金扩展业务板块,导致其盈利质量从2015—2019年间波动较大。但自2019 年起,随着战略布局及经营策略的调整,奥飞娱乐在市场环境压力下,虽仍需面对较大风险,但其盈利质量呈现出了上升趋势。据此,本文提出,奥飞娱乐需理性扩张,平稳转型。同时,还需加强资金链管理,保障日常经营的现金流。此外,研发与宣传投入还需加强,通过提升动漫IP影响力,葆有核心竞争力。 |
英文摘要 | Animation industry is known as the most creative sunrise industry in the 21st century. After a period of rapid growth, the profit performance of listed companies in China's animation industry in recent years is not ideal, forming a strong contrast with the high expectations of the market. In this context, using scientific and reasonable analysis methods to comprehensively evaluate the earnings quality of animation enterprises can help enterprises adjust their production and operation activities in time and ensure high-quality profits. On the basis of combing the concept and characteristics of earnings quality,combined with the characteristics and development status of animation industry,and referring to the existing research results of Chinese and foreign scholars, this paper selects 21 secondary indicators from five dimensions of earnings quality:profitability,cash flow, sustainability, structure and risk, and constructs a earningsquality index evaluation system suitable for animation industry. Then,Alpha Entertainment, the "first share of Chinese animation" in the animation industry, is selected as the sample enterprise. Based on its financial data from 2015 to 2019, a time series is constructed, and its profit quality is analyzed and evaluated by principal component analysis. The results show that Alpha entertainment has invested a huge amount of money to expand its business sector in the face of the situation that the existing IP products can not appreciate and maintain their value, resulting in a large fluctuation in its profit quality from 2015 to 2019. However, since 2019, with the adjustment of strategic layout and business strategy, Alpha entertainment still needs to face greater risks under the pressure of market environment, but its profit quality shows an upward trend. Therefore, this paper proposes that Alpha entertainment needs rational expansion and smooth transformation. At the same time, we also need to strengthen the capital chain management to ensure the cash flow of daily operation. In addition, research & development and publicity investment need to be strengthened to maintain core competitiveness by enhancing the influence of animation IP. |
学位类型 | 硕士 |
答辩日期 | 2021-05-16 |
学位授予地点 | 甘肃省兰州市 |
语种 | 中文 |
论文总页数 | 55 |
参考文献总数 | 50 |
馆藏号 | 0003743 |
保密级别 | 公开 |
中图分类号 | F23/619 |
文献类型 | 学位论文 |
条目标识符 | http://ir.lzufe.edu.cn/handle/39EH0E1M/29406 |
专题 | 会计学院 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 郭佳斌. 基于时间序列分析的奥飞娱乐盈利质量研究[D]. 甘肃省兰州市. 兰州财经大学,2021. |
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