统计与数据科学学院知识库

乡村经济是城乡发展背景下值得关注和研究的重要问题之一。党的十九大报告也再次强调乡村经济发展的重要性，加强农业农村发展基础工作。庆阳市位于西部干旱地区，城市经济发展受阻，乡村经济发展落后，整体经济水平低下。庆阳市位于甘肃省东部，贫困县居多，如何解决“三农问题”，促进乡村经济发展，最终消除贫困，是国家和政府面临的主要问题。

选择庆阳市为研究对象，以县域为研究单元，探索各县域单元的乡村性时空分异特征以及分异驱动因素，从而因地制宜、优化资源配置、缩小贫富差距。

首先，构建乡村性评价指标体系，利用熵权法确定乡村性指数权重，并计算各个地区乡村性指数，根据统计描述分析发现庆阳市县域乡村性普遍较高，五个国家级贫困县（镇原县、华池县、合水县、环县和宁县）的乡村性较强，经济发展相对落后，城镇化水平低，其中镇原县经济发展最落后，乡村性最强，平均值为0.7177，西峰区乡村性最弱，为0.1577。其次，测算乡村性分异指数，结果表明庆阳市各县区乡村性差异较大，区域经济发展不平衡。再次，利用空间计量方法分析乡村性空间分异状况，发现乡村性空间相关性逐渐由不显著的空间负相关转变为显著的空间正相关，乡村性空间集聚性增强。最后，根据变系数模型结果各个地区乡村性影响因素，发现各个地区的乡村性影响因素不尽相同。西北部地区的乡村性主要受农业经济水平的影响比较显著；东部地区乡村性影响因素参差不齐，但主要受居民消费水平、居民储蓄水平以及第二产业发展水平的影响比较显著；中部地区乡村性均受教育水平的显著影响，其次还受居民消费水平、第二、三产业发展水平的影响。

The rural economy is one of the important issues worthy of attention and research in the context of urban and rural development. The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that we must adhere to the priority development of agriculture and rural areas, ensure national food security, and strengthen rural basic work. Located in the arid regions of the west, Gansu Province is a typical province in underdeveloped areas. Urban economic development is hindered, rural economic development is backward, and the overall economic level is low. Qingyang City is located in the eastern part of Gansu Province, and there are many poverty-stricken counties. How to solve the "three rural issues", promote rural economic development, and finally eliminate poverty is the main problem facing the state and the government.

Qingyang City was selected as the research object, and the county area was used as the research unit to explore the rural spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics and differentiation drivers of each county unit, so as to adapt to local conditions, optimize resource allocation, and narrow the gap between rich and poor.

Firstly, construct a rural evaluation index system, use the entropy weight method to determine the rural index weights, and calculate the rural index of each region. According to the statistical description analysis, it is found that the rural areas of Qingyang County are generally high, and five national poverty counties (towns) Yuan County, Huan County, Heshui County, Ning County and Huachi County have strong rural areas, low level of urbanization, and relatively backward economic development. Among them, Zhenyuan County has the most backward economic development and the strongest rural level, with an average of 0.7177. Xifeng District is the weakest in rural areas, with 0.1577. Secondly, measuring the rural differentiation index, it is found that the rural areas of Qingyang City have large differences in rural areas, uneven urbanization levels, and uneven regional economic development. Thirdly, using spatial measurement method to analyze the spatial differentiation of rural areas, it is found that the spatial correlation of rural areas gradually changes from insignificant spatial negative correlation to significant spatial positive correlation, and rural spatial agglomeration is enhanced. Finally, according to the rural influencing factors of each region in the results of the variable coefficient model, it is found that the rural influencing factors in different regions are not the same. The rural areas in the northwestern region are mainly affected by the level of agricultural economy. The rural influencing factors in the eastern region are uneven, but they are mainly affected by the consumption level of residents, the level of household savings and the development level of the secondary industry. Sexuality is significantly affected by the level of education, and secondly by the level of consumption and the level of development of the secondary and tertiary industries.