统计与数据科学学院知识库

能源是一个国家或地区由大自然赋予的宝贵财富，也是国家或地区发展不可 或缺的基础性资源，其与经济增长的关系一直是经济学研究的重要领域之一， “资源诅咒”理论提出以后更是备受关注。西北五省能源储量较为丰富，能源产 业发展较为充分，但充分发展的能源产业是不是也导致了该地区政府发展难以摆 脱能源依赖性，使得其产业结构单一，最终破坏了经济结构的协调性并阻碍了其 经济的可持续健康发展呢？西北五省能源丰度与经济增长的关系到底怎样的？ 其又如何作用于经济增长？2015 年 10 月，在党的十八届五中全会上，习近平总 书记针对新时代背景下怎样发展好的问题鲜明地提出创新、协调、绿色、开放、 共享的发展理念；十九大报告也明确指出“我们要建设的现代化是人与自然和谐 共生的现代化”。在建设美丽中国时代背景下，西北五省如何科学处理能源与经 济增长之间关系并合理开发利用能源是一个十分重要的现实问题。 文章利用西北五省 2000—2017 年数据，先通过统计观察初步判断出西北五 省能源丰度与经济增长之间存在倒 U 型曲线关系；然后文章构建经济增长模型， 实证分析证实了西北五省能源丰度与经济增长之间确实存在倒 U 型曲线关系；接 着文章分别引入单一变量进行实证分析，研究各控制变量的引入对倒 U 型曲线拐 点变动情况的影响，发现：西北五省能源丰度与经济增长之间倒 U 型曲线的拐点 值对引入不同变量的变动情况存在差异。物质资本投入的引入使曲线拐点左移， 加速了“资源诅咒”的到来；教育投入、科技创新投入、对外开放程度和制造业 发展水平等变量使曲线拐点右移，延缓了“资源诅咒”的到来。最后文章构建以 传导机制变量为被解释变量，能源丰度为解释变量的回归模型，实证分析发现： 西北五省能源丰度对于制造业发展存在“荷兰病”效应；对教育投入水平不存在 “挤出效应”；对科技创新存投入在“挤出效应”；对对外开放存在“制度弱化效 应”。根据研究结论，文章提出政策建议。

Energy is a precious treasure endowed by the nature of a region. The relationship between energy and economic growth has always been one of the important areas of economic research, which has attracted much attention since the theory of "resource curse" was proposed.The five provinces in northwest China have relatively rich energy reserves and developed energy industries. But does the relatively developed energy industry make it difficult for the regional government to get rid of energy dependence, make its industrial structure single, and finally destroy the coordination of economic structure and hinder the sustainable and healthy development of its economy?What is the relationship between energy abundance and economic growth in the five northwest provinces?How does it affect economic growth?In October 2015, at the fifth plenary session of the 18th CPC central committee, general secretary Xi Jinping put forward the concept of innovative, coordinated, green, open and Shared development. According to the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China that "the modernization we are going to build is the modernization of harmonious coexistence between man and nature."Under the background of building a beautiful New China, how to correctly handle the relationship between energy and economic growth in the five provinces in the northwest, rationally use energy, not only to achieve economic growth, but also to ensure green and 兰州财经大学硕士学位论文 西北五省能源丰度对经济增长的作用及传导机制研究 healthy development, is a very important issue. Based on the data of the five provinces of northwest China from 2000 to 2017, this thesis first preliminarily judged the inverted u-shaped curve relationship between energy abundance and economic growth of the five provinces of northwest China by preliminary statistical observation.Then the thesis selects variables to construct the economic growth model of the five northwest provinces, and the empirical analysis proves that there is indeed an inverted u-shaped curve relationship between energy abundance and economic growth in the five northwest provinces.Then, by introducing a single variable for empirical analysis, the thesis studies the influence of the introduction of control variables on the inflection point change of inverted u-shaped curve, and finds that the inflection point value of inverted u-shaped curve between energy abundance and economic growth in the five provinces in northwest China is different from that of the introduction of different variables.The introduction of material capital investment shifts the inflection point of the curve to the left and accelerates the arrival of "resource curse".Variables such as investment in education, investment in scientific and technological innovation, degree of openness to the outside world and level of manufacturing all shift the inflection point of the curve to the right, delaying the arrival of the "resource curse" effect.Finally the article according to the classic theory of "resource curse" choose "resource 兰州财经大学硕士学位论文 西北五省能源丰度对经济增长的作用及传导机制研究 curse" variable transmission mechanism, build in transmission mechanism variables to be explained, abundance of energy to explain the variable regression model, with five provincial panel data to empirical analysis, found that the five northwestern provinces energy abundance for the development of manufacturing industry is the "Dutch disease" effect;There is no "crowding out effect" on education investment level;Investment in scientific and technological innovation in the "crowding out effect";There is "system weakening effect" on the degree of opening to the outside world.According to the conclusion of the research, the paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions.