金融学院知识库

2019 年科技部印发《关于新时期支持科技型中小企业加快创新发展的若干 政策措施》其中在拓展企业融资渠道方面指出要开展贷款风险补偿试点，引导银 行信贷支持转化科技成果的科技型中小企业。2018 年 10 月，中小企业所发展信 用环境在 8 月短暂改善后再次恶化，并达到了有史以来的最低，随着信用环境的 下行，中小企业要想获得银行贷款也越来越困难，所以，需要借助信贷部门以及 第三方信用评级部门更加科学地度量中小企业的信用风险，根据其信用风险状况 考虑是不是为其提供资金支持。

       本文使用现金流组合法划分企业生命周期，是因为现金流组合法具有独立判 别和较高的敏感性。成长期企业需要融资额较多，有限的自有资金和股权资本难 以满足需求，必须在金融市场上另辟途径融资，所以本文就成长期的特点出发， 建立成长期科技型中小企业信用风险评价指标体系，运用 GPCA 动态信用风险度 量模型测算成长期阶段的科技型中小企业信用风险,以期为成长期阶段科技型中 小企业获得更多资金来源提供依据。首先，追本溯源对国内外关于中小企业生命 周期划分以及国内关于信用风险度量指标构建和模型的研究进行了评述。其次， 对科技型中小企业评价标准、企业生命周期、信用风险度量模型的理论进行分析 对比并进一步建立一个较为完善的信用风险度量指标体系，提出假设：若正处于 成长期阶段的企业信用风险度量结果与能够进入成熟期的企业成长期阶段的信 用风险度量结果相似则正处于成长期阶段的企业也很可能能进入成熟阶段。因为 这是一个初步研究的问题，所以还存在一些未能解决的问题和不足。

       本文运用 Stata16.0 进行实证研究：考虑到现金流组合法很敏感，所以企业 要有足够长的存活时间。本文使用中小板和创业板的企业财务数据。建立三维信 用立体数据表，进行 GPCA 动态信用评价模型分析，结果表明，已经进入成熟期 的成长期阶段的企业信用评分值在逐年增加，分值波动较小。现在正处于成长期 阶段的企业也有类似的特征，有些企业在近年表现了较好的发展趋势，可以设想 企业很有希望进入成熟期或趋于稳定发展。相较于传统的信用风险度量模型， GPCA 动态信用风险评价模型，可以将更多的财务指标保留并加入时间因素，能 更好的分析企业信用风险。

In 2019, the ministry of science and technology will issue policies and measures to support smes in science and technology to accelerate innovation and development in the new era. In terms of expanding financing channels for enterprises, it points out that pilot loan risk compensation should be carried out, and bank credit should be guided to support smes in science and technology that transform scientific and technological achievements. In October 2018, small and medium-sized enterprise development by credit environment deteriorates again after a brief improvement in August, and has achieved the lowest ever, as the credit environment of the downside, small and medium-sized enterprises is becoming more and more difficult to get bank loans, so the need to use the credit department and the third party credit rating department more scientific measurement of small and medium-sized enterprise credit risk, according to the status of the credit risk to consider whether to provide financial support.

This paper uses the cash flow grouping method to divide the enterprise life cycle, because the cash flow grouping method has the independent discrimination and the high sensitivity. Growth enterprises need raised more, limited its own capital and equity capital is difficult to meet demand, must be another way to finance in the financial market, so in this paper, the growth characteristics, developing small and mid-sized enterprise credit risk evaluation index system, using GPCA dynamic credit risk measurement model measuring the growth phase of technology-based smes credit risk, in order to get more growth stage of technology-based smes financing source provides the basis. Firstly, the paper reviews the domestic and foreign researches on the division of life cycle of smes and the construction and model of credit risk measurement indicators. Second, for small and mid-sized enterprise evaluation standard, enterprise life cycle, through the comparative analysis the theory of credit risk measurement model and further establish a relatively perfect credit risk measurement index system, puts forward assumption: if is at the growth stage of enterprise credit risk measurement and able to enter the mature period of enterprise growth phase of the credit risk measurement phase similar to the growing of enterprise is likely to enter the mature stage. Because this is a preliminary study of the problem, there are still some unresolved problems and shortcomings.

This paper uses Stata16.0 for empirical research: considering that the cash flow grouping method is very sensitive, enterprises should have a long survival time. This paper uses the financial data of smes and gem companies. The results show that the enterprise credit score value which has entered the mature stage of growth is increasing year by year, and the score value fluctuates little. Now is in the growth stage of the enterprise also have similar characteristics, some enterprises in recent years have shown a better development trend, we can assume that the enterprise is very likely to enter the maturity period or tend to stable development. Compared with the traditional credit risk measurement model, GPCA dynamic credit risk evaluation model can retain more financial indicators and add time factor, which can better analyze the credit risk of enterprises.