Glacial runoff likely reached peak in the mountainous areas of the Shiyang River Basin, China

doi:10.1007/s11629-014-3077-2

	Glacial runoff likely reached peak in the mountainous areas of the Shiyang River Basin, China
	Zhang Shi-qiang ; Gao Xin; Zhang Xiao-wen
	2015-03
发表期刊	JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE
卷号	12 期号:2 页码:382-395
摘要	Glacier runoff in mountain areas of the Shiyang River Basin (SRB), Qilian Mountain, western China is important for the river and water supply downstream. Small glaciers with area of less than 1 km are dominant (87%) in the SRB. A modified monthly degree-day model was applied to quantify the glacier mass balance, area, and changes in glacier runoff in the SRB during 1961-2050. The comparison between the simulated and observed snow line altitude, annual glacier runoff, and mass balance from 1961 to 2008 suggests that the degree-day model may be used to analyze the long-term change of glacier mass balance and runoff in the SRB. The glacier accumulation shows a significant (p < 0.01) decreasing trend of -0.830 mm a(-1). The mass balance also shows a significant (p < 0.01) decreasing trend of -5.521 mm a(-1). The glacier total runoff has significantly (p < 0.05) increased by 0.079 x 10 m from 1961 to 2008. The monthly precipitation and air temperature are projected to significant (p < 0.005) increase during 2015 to 2050 under three different scenarios. The ablation is projected to significant (p < 0.001) increase, while the accumulation has no significant (p=0.05) trend. The mass balance is projected to decrease, the glacier area is projected to decrease, and the glacier runoff depth is projected to increase. However, the glacier total runoff is projected to decrease. These results indicate that the glacier total runoff over glacier areas observed in 1970 reached its peak in the 2000s. This will exacerbate the contradiction between water supply and downstream water demands in the SRB.
关键词	Climate change Mass balance Glacial runoff Glacier area Shiyang River Basin
DOI	10.1007/s11629-014-3077-2
收录类别	SCI ; SCOPUS ; SCIE ; CSCD
ISSN	1672-6316
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000351664200010
出版者	SCIENCE PRESS
原始文献类型	Article
EISSN	1993-0321
引用统计	被引频次：19[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.lzufe.edu.cn/handle/39EH0E1M/1803
专题	工商管理学院
作者单位	1.Northwest Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Xian 710027, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Cold & Arid Reg Environm & Engn Res Inst, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; 3.Lanzhou Commercial Coll, Resource Environm & Urban & Rural Planning Dept, Lanzhou 730020, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang Shi-qiang,Gao Xin,Zhang Xiao-wen. Glacial runoff likely reached peak in the mountainous areas of the Shiyang River Basin, China[J]. JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,2015,12(2):382-395.
APA	Zhang Shi-qiang,Gao Xin,&Zhang Xiao-wen.(2015).Glacial runoff likely reached peak in the mountainous areas of the Shiyang River Basin, China.JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,12(2),382-395.
MLA	Zhang Shi-qiang,et al."Glacial runoff likely reached peak in the mountainous areas of the Shiyang River Basin, China".JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE 12.2(2015):382-395.