Projection of glacier runoff in Yarkant River basin and Beida River basin, Western China

doi:10.1002/hyp.8373

	Projection of glacier runoff in Yarkant River basin and Beida River basin, Western China
	Zhang, Shiqiang ; Gao, Xin; Zhang, Xiaowen ; Hagemann, Stefan
	2012-08-30
发表期刊	HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES
卷号	26 期号:18 页码:2773-2781
摘要	Potential changes in glacier area, mass balance and runoff in the Yarkant River Basin (YRB) and Beida River Basin (BRB) are projected for the period from 2011 to 2050 employing the modified monthly degree-day model forced by climate change projection. Future monthly air temperature and precipitation were derived from the simple average of 17, 16 and 17 General Circulation Model (GCM) projections following the A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. These data were downscaled to each station employing the Delta method, which computes differences between current and future GCM simulations and adds these changes to observed time series. Model parameters calibrated with observations or results published in the literature between 1961 and 2006 were kept unchanged. Annual glacier runoff in YRB is projected to increase until 2050, and the total runoff over glacier area in 1970 is projected to increase by about 13%35% during 20112050 relative to the average during 19612006. Annual glacier runoff and the total runoff over glacier area in 1970 in BRB is projected to increase initially and then to reach a tipping point during 20112030. There are prominent increases in summer, but only small increase in May and October of glacier runoff in YRB, and significant increases during late spring and early summer and significant decreases in July and late summer of glacier runoff in BRB. This study highlights the great differences among basins in their response to future climate warming. The specific runoff from areas exposed after glacier retreat relative to 1970 is projected to general increasing, which must be considered when evaluating the potential change of glacier runoff. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
关键词	projection glacier runoff mass balance change
DOI	10.1002/hyp.8373
收录类别	SCI ; EI ; SCOPUS ; SCIE
ISSN	0885-6087
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:000307500600009
出版者	WILEY
EI入藏号	20123415362884
原始文献类型	Article
EISSN	1099-1085
引用统计	被引频次：22[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.lzufe.edu.cn/handle/39EH0E1M/14323
专题	工商管理学院
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, CAREERI, Qilian Shan Stn Glaciol & Ecol Environm, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China; 2.Lanzhou Univ Finance & Econ, Resource Environm & Urban & Rural Planning Dept, Lanzhou 730020, Peoples R China; 3.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Shiqiang,Gao, Xin,Zhang, Xiaowen,et al. Projection of glacier runoff in Yarkant River basin and Beida River basin, Western China[J]. HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES,2012,26(18):2773-2781.
APA	Zhang, Shiqiang,Gao, Xin,Zhang, Xiaowen,&Hagemann, Stefan.(2012).Projection of glacier runoff in Yarkant River basin and Beida River basin, Western China.HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES,26(18),2773-2781.
MLA	Zhang, Shiqiang,et al."Projection of glacier runoff in Yarkant River basin and Beida River basin, Western China".HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES 26.18(2012):2773-2781.

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